Commercial registrations and activity
Broad decline in commercial registrations
10 Mar 2020
Our take on the latest Commercial registrations and activity (Tue 10 Mar 2020)
New light commercials down 15%pa
New medium commercials down 12%pa
New very heavy commercials down 20%pa
The key numbers...
- New commercial vehicle registrations slumped 15%pa in February, the strongest rate of decline since 2009.
- In the year-ended February 2020, new commercial registrations are now 5.7% lower than the previous 12 months.
- The large fall in new light commercial registrations, down 15%pa, was the main source of decline, but new medium commercials and new very heavy commercials also declined.
- Road user charges for all heavy vehicles dropped 2.1%pa in February, leaving RUCs 2.4% lower for the year-ended February 2020 compared with the 12 months before.
New light commercial registrations
Annual running total, source: NZTA
...and our reaction
- Commercial vehicle registrations declined across the board in February, after a relatively stable January. The outbreak of COVID-19 is likely to be playing into the strong drop off in commercial vehicle registrations as uncertainty puts investment decisions on hold.
- Commercial registrations are likely to deteriorate further over the next couple of months, as COVID-19 has become a lot more prevalent internationally in recent weeks.
- Crude oil prices have crashed by over 20% in the past week as Saudi Arabia entered a price war with Russia after Russia refused to reduce their production. Along with weaker oil demand because of COVID-19 we expect lower pump prices will relieve some cost pressures on freight companies.
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