Our take on the latest Commercial registrations and activity (Mon 10 Feb 2020)
New medium commercials down 5.8%pa
New very heavy commercials down 7.6%pa
New light commercials unchanged at 0.0%pa growth
The key numbers...
- New light commercial vehicle registrations make up nearly 90% of total new commercial vehicle registrations, so zero growth in new light commercials paved the way for an uneventful January.
- A downtick in new medium and new very large commercial vehicle registrations means that overall, commercial registrations fell by 0.7%pa in January.
- New medium commercial vehicle registrations grew throughout most of 2019. However, erratic growth in recent months suggests this trend is unlikely to continue.
Total new commercial registrations
Annual running total, source: NZTA
...and our reaction
- The total number of commercial vehicle registrations didn’t fall as sharply in January compared with the previous six months. However, we are sceptical of any recovery.
- Construction activity is expected to ease over the next few years making investment in a new light commercial vehicle less attractive.
- The coronavirus will affect New Zealand’s freight volumes in the coming months. China is our biggest trading partner and goods export markets, such as seafood, meat, and forestry, are likely to see a reduction in Chinese demand.
- Chinese tourism, our second largest tourist market after Australia, will be badly affected by the coronavirus, which as a result will hurt retail markets. New Zealand still has its borders closed to foreigners arriving from China.
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