Our take on the latest Commercial registrations and activity (Fri 10 Jan 2020)
New medium commercials up 24%pa
New very heavy commercials up 14%pa
New light commercials down 16%pa
The key numbers...
- New medium commercial vehicle registrations grew 24% from December 2018, while new very heavy commercial registrations lifted 14%pa. These growth rates are significantly better than November’s declines of 8.8% and 11%pa respectively.
- Total light commercial vehicle registrations fell 16%pa in December 2019. After adjusting for the usual seasonal variation, last month’s registrations were the weakest in three years. The annual total of registrations is now down 5.5% from its April 2019 peak.
- Total heavy vehicle road user charge kilometres grew 2.6%pa in December, pulling out of four months of decline.
Total heavy commercial registrations
Annual running total, source: NZTA
...and our reaction
- General weakness in the economic outlook over the next few years, signs of the construction sector reaching capacity, and regulatory changes affecting the agricultural sector are likely factors behind the decline in new commercial vehicle registrations.
- However, ANZ’s business and consumer confidence surveys have shown improvements in recent months. Strength in retail activity and steady export volumes are likely to have stopped heavy commercial registrations from falling further.
- The strong terms of trade, encouraging goods exporters, and continued retail activity may hold commercial vehicle registrations around current high levels for longer. However, these positives need to be weighed against the risks of a slowing domestic economy.
Latest updates
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Commercial registrations and activity
Commercial registrations pull back following fuel price uncertainty
Mon 13 Jul 2026
Quarterly
1.2%pa Light commercial registrations fall in the June 2026 quarter
19%pa Medium commercial registration fall in the June 2026 quarter
10%pa Very heavy comm. registrations rise in the June 2026 quarterPremium
Commercial registrations and activity
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Mon 13 Apr 2026
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48%pa Light commercial registrations jump in the March 2026 month-17%pa Medium commercial registration fall in the March 2026 quarter
-4.2%pa Very heavy comm. registrations fall in the March 2026 quarterCommercial registrations and activity
Medium and very heavy commercial registrations still falling
Tue 13 Jan 2026
Quarterly
Quarterly very heavy registrations down 26%pa in Dec 2025Quarterly medium registrations down 18%pa in Dec 2025Quarterly light commercial registrations up 9.5%pa in Dec 2025Commercial registrations and activity
Light vehicle demand leaves heavy commercials behind
Fri 10 Oct 2025
Quarterly
Very heavy registrations down 38%pa in Sep 2025 quarterMedium registrations down 14%pa in Sep 2025 quarterLight commercial registrations up 25%pa in Sep 2025 quarter