Our take on the latest Commercial registrations and activity (Tue 8 Oct 2019)
New light commercials down 7.6%pa
New medium commercials up 2.8%pa
New very heavy commercials up 3.1%pa
The key numbers...
- New light commercial vehicle registrations fell 7.6%pa in September 2019, down 6.7%pa in the September quarter.
- New medium commercial vehicle registrations rose 2.8% in September 2019, up 12.6%pa in the September quarter.
- New very heavy vehicle registrations grew 3.1%pa in September 2019 but were down 6.7%pa in the September quarter.
Light commercial registrations
Annual running total
...and our reaction
- New light commercial registrations have fallen for three consecutive months as business confidence has weakened and farmers are increasingly concerned and cautious about their prospects. With non-residential building consents also easing in August, the residential building sector remains a key source of strength in the light commercial market.
- The recent growth in new medium commercial registrations is showing signs of petering out with September’s growth significantly lower than the previous two months. This slowdown is unsurprising given that annual new medium registrations are now close to their recent peak in 2017, and the surge of the past few months has occurred at the same time as growth in both the domestic and global economy have slowed.
- New very heavy commercial registrations remain volatile, with September posting the fourth month of positive annual growth since the start of the year. This volatility reflects the mixed economic environment, with strong commodity prices and continued domestic population growth contrasting with a slowing domestic economy and an increasingly uncertain global outlook.
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