Our take on the latest Commercial registrations and activity (Mon 9 Sept 2019)
New light commercials down 8.2%pa
New medium commercials up 6.1%pa
New very heavy commercials down 6.0%pa
The key numbers...
- New light commercial vehicle registrations fell 8.2%pa in August 2019 – the largest monthly fall so far this year.
- New medium commercial vehicle registrations rose 6.1% in August 2019. The annual total of new medium commercial registrations is now just 2.3% lower than its recent peak in late 2017.
- New very heavy vehicle commercial registrations fell 6.0%pa in August 2019, a drop that was not as pronounced as the previous two months, when registrations recorded double-digit declines.
New medium commercial vehicle registrations
Annual totals
...and our reaction
- Annual new light and new very heavy commercial registrations remain at high levels but are both down from recent peaks, while medium commercial registrations have found their second wind.
- New light commercial vehicle registrations are being supported by a strong building sector. But business confidence as a whole is low, and farmers are increasingly concerned about rising costs, the weakening global economy, and the medium-term effects of government environmental policy.
- New very heavy commercial vehicle registrations continue to benefit from strong commodity prices and continued domestic population growth. But storm clouds are gathering: a weakening global economy, the US-China trade war, and expectations of falls in some agricultural volumes in the 2019/20 year are all undermining freight firms’ willingness to invest in new vehicles.
- The continued shortage of very heavy vehicle drivers means some freight firms are purchasing medium commercial vehicles for which drivers are easier to find, which might go some way to explaining the contrasting fortunes of the medium and very heavy commercial vehicle markets. We expect medium commercial registrations to continue to be supported this year by moderate domestic economic growth and population growth, elevated commodity prices, and a busy building sector.
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