Our take on the latest Commercial registrations and activity (Mon 12 Aug 2019)
New light commercials down 4.2%pa
New medium commercials up 33%pa
New very heavy commercials down 16%pa
The key numbers...
- New very heavy vehicle registrations fell 16%pa in July. This drop is the third double-digit fall so far this year.
- New medium commercial vehicle registrations bounced back from a disappointing June month to record the highest July total since our data series began in 1990. For the year to date, new medium commercial registrations are now 14% higher than they were last year.
- New light commercial vehicle registrations fell 4.2%pa in July 2019 - the fourth monthly fall so far this year. However, for the year to date, new light commercial vehicle registrations are just 1.0% lower than they were last year.
New medium commercial registrations
July totals
...and our reaction
- The decline in new very heavy commercial vehicle registrations is gathering momentum. Borrowing costs are low and falling but the weakening global economy, falls in some commodity prices – especially logs - and concerns about a trade war are eroding freight firms’ willingness to invest in very heavy commercials.
- A strong July demonstrates that some momentum remains in medium commercial vehicle registrations. Continued difficulties finding class 5 drivers in a tight labour market might be causing freight firms to purchase smaller commercial vehicles, for which drivers are more plentiful.
- New light commercial vehicle registrations remain volatile, but at historically high levels. Continued strength in the domestic construction sector should help sustain light commercial registrations for the remainder of this year.
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