Our take on the latest Tourism data (Tue 14 May 2019)
Tourist arrivals down 2.5% from March 2018
Timing of Easter has affected numbers
Chinese arrivals down 5.5% from March 2018
The key numbers...
- Indications from the March tourism data are mixed due to the change in Easter's timing from last year. April data will provide a clearer read on how the tourism sector is faring.
- The Christchurch mosque shootings in mid-March might have a short-term negative effect on visitor arrivals, but the responses of both the government and the public to the shootings mean that this effect should be limited.
- Declining Chinese visitor numbers suggest New Zealand is struggling to maintain its attractiveness in the Chinese market and raise questions about the tourism sector’s future ability to achieve growth.
- An easier stance on monetary policy from the Reserve Bank since late March has dragged the New Zealand dollar down, making it cheaper for tourists to visit here. If the dollar remains lower, it will help mitigate the negative effects of the slowing global economy and the introduction of a visitor levy on tourist numbers.
Tourist arrivals by country
Year-end annual % changes
...and our reaction
- Tourist arrivals in March were down 2.5% from a year earlier.
- However, this weakness was due to the timing of Easter in 2018, which began in late March. Seasonally adjusted arrivals were up 2.5% from February, and StatsNZ noted that arrivals in the first three weeks of March were higher than last year.
- Arrivals from Australia (down 8.7%) the UK (down 16%), and Hong Kong (down 40%) appear to have been most significantly affected by the timing of Easter.
- Tourism from China is less likely to be affected by Easter, so the 5.5% decline in arrivals from March last year gives cause for concern.
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