Our take on the latest Commercial registrations and activity (Mon 11 Mar 2019)
Year-end commercial registrations growth slows to 0.5%pa
Light commercial registrations growth slows to 1.3%pa in three months to February
New medium commercials in the three months to February down 10%pa
The key numbers...
- Commercial vehicle registrations growth stumbled along in February in a continuation of the softer growth outlook for the next year.
- Although business confidence has recovered from its weakest point in mid-2018, prospects for business investment remain weak. This sluggish investment, slowing population growth, and prospects of softer economic growth are placing downward pressure on commercial registration numbers over the next year.
- Nevertheless, in the context of the strong growth in vehicle sales achieved over the last seven years, the forecast drop-off in registrations is modest and would still leave activity at a relatively high level.
Total registrations growth
Year-end % changes
...and our reaction
- The trend for commercial vehicle registrations continued to slow in February, with year-end growth in total registrations easing to a nine-year low of 0.5%pa.
- New light commercial registrations appear to have stabilised at about 45,000pa, and year-end sales growth has tapered off to 2.9%pa, its slowest rate in seven years.
- New very heavy commercial registrations are also steady at around 2,650pa, but falls in registrations could start to show through by the middle of this year.
- New medium commercial registrations over the last three months were down 10% from a year earlier, and further declines appear likely throughout the rest of 2019.
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