Our take on the latest Tourism data (Fri 15 Feb 2019)
Tourist arrival growth slows to 3.6%pa for 2018
Chinese arrivals down 4.2%pa in Dec quarter
US arrivals up 10%pa in Dec quarter
The key numbers...
- Prospects for the tourism sector continue to soften, with arrivals from our three largest Asian markets falling over the final quarter of 2018 (see below).
- Reports of strained diplomatic relations between China and New Zealand over the last couple of weeks present real concerns about future tourist numbers from China, given the country’s contributions to tourism’s growth over previous years alongside the fact that increases in Chinese arrivals were already slowing.
- An outlook of more difficult global economic conditions is also likely to undermine growth from current positive contributors such as the US and the UK.
Tourist arrival numbers
Year-end % changes
...and our reaction
- A 2.5% drop in tourist arrivals between November and December (seasonally adjusted) dragged year-end growth in arrivals down to a five-year low.
- Sizable negative contributions to arrivals in December came from India, China, and South Korea. Arrivals from these countries were each down more than 1,200 people from December 2017, representing annual declines of 17%, 3.3%, and 12% respectively.
- The biggest positive contributions to growth in December were from the US (up 10%pa), Australia (although up just 1.2%), the UK (up 5.2%), and Taiwan (up 39%).
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