Is the grass really greener?

New Zealand’s migration story is starting to shift again. Net migration remains well below the extraordinary highs of recent years, but fewer people are leaving, more Kiwis are returning home, and some of the traditional destinations for New Zealanders are looking less attractive than they once did. A weaker UK labour market and a more challenging economic outlook in Australia appear to be taking some of the shine off moving offshore. New Zealand still faces a sizeable net loss of Kiwis, but the latest migration trends suggest the pull of opportunities elsewhere – and the push away from New Zealand – might be becoming a little less powerful.

Annual net migration to New Zealand has increased to just shy of 18,000pa over the June 2026 year on provisional figures. Although that net migration level is low compared to the nearly 134,000 peak in late 2023, current migration levels have picked up from the sub-10,000pa levels seen a year ago.

But what has driven the increase in annual net migration hasn’t been an increase in arrivals – they’ve only increased 1.2%pa over the year. But departures have fallen 4.8%pa over the same period, bolstering the annual net migration total by not reducing the aggregates as much.

Even more interesting is the different trends for arrivals and departures by citizenship. The number of foreign citizen arrivals into New Zealand is up just 0.1%pa over the last year, to 104,000pa, while the number of foreign citizen departures is down 7.5%pa to around 49,000. Effectively, there is still a large amount of foreign talent coming to New Zealand, but slightly fewer leaving, which reinforces anecdotal reports that skills mismatches remain across the economy.

But it’s the flow of Kiwis that suggests an ongoing shift in where people are heading around the world. The number of New Zealand citizens arriving back in New Zealand permanently has increased 6.1%pa over the last year, to total just over 26,000pa, while the number of Kiwi citizen departures has fallen 2.7%pa to nearly 38,000pa. Although there is still a net loss of Kiwis, that trend is fairly normal – outside of 2020-21, there has always been a net outflow of New Zealanders to the rest of the world.

Previously, there was a well-trodden path for young Kiwis to head to the UK on a Youth Mobility Scheme visa. The visa, available for 18–35-year-olds, allows Kiwis to live and work in the UK, and is often used for lawyers and various other to provide both new work experiences and easy access to Europe and beyond, as a working OE.

It would seem that such interest in moving to the UK from NZ has reduced. UK entry clearance visas, including the Youth Mobility Scheme, from New Zealand have dropped to their lowest outside of the COVID-19 pandemic in 20 years.

Over the decade between 2010 and 2020, the annual number of visa entry clearances approved for New Zealanders into the UK averaged around 6,700 a year. During the COVID-19 pandemic, visa clearances, of course, fell. As the borders reopened, visa clearances increased back towards more usual levels as travel and migration trends resumed. Over the 2023 calendar year, there had been just over 7,000 visa entry clearances approved for New Zealanders.

But the recovery was short-lived. From mid-2024, visa clearances started to trend lower, and over the year to June 2026, visa clearances had fallen back to around 4,500.

A key driver of this change in interest is the UK labour market, which has moved in a similar way to the New Zealand labour market. The UK unemployment rate had increased to 5.2% at the end of 2025 and has sat at 4.9% in the last few months. Although not as high as the New Zealand unemployment rate, the UK rate is the highest – excluding the pandemic period – in around a decade. More challenging job conditions seem to be making Kiwis considering a shift to the other side of the world question whether they’ll find a role. It’s one thing to earn London money and pay London costs – it’s quite another to pay London costs while you battle it out with so many others for the roles available.

Closer to home, it appears that the Trans-Tasman migration flow had stabilised at the end of 2025. Although that seems a long time ago, timeliness is the trade-off faced to get matched Stats NZ and Australian Bureau of Statistics data. Those figures show that, over the 2025 calendar year, there was a net loss of 28,500 people from New Zealand to Australia. That net outflow is larger than the 19,000pa net outflow experienced on average since 2004, but is still down from the 32,000 net outflow experienced at the start of 2024. It is also still lower than the peak net outflow of nearly 44,000pa at the start of 2012 as the GFC, Christchurch earthquakes, and Australian mining boom combined together.

Just as interesting is the composition of the current net outflow. A key driver of the net outflow is the number of migrant departures leaving New Zealand and heading to Australia. Over the December 2025 year, that gross outflow totalled 47,500 – down ever so slightly on the 48,000+ that departed over the annual periods earlier in 2025. But gross outflows from New Zealand to Australia are still larger than any time between 2013 and 2023.

The number of people moving in reverse has also subtly shifted. Over the 2025 calendar year, just shy of 19,000 people migrated from Australia to New Zealand, the highest total in three years.

There are a range of likely reasons for the shift. Australia continues to face higher interest rates than in New Zealand, with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Cash Rate Target at 4.35%, compared to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s 2.50%.

Although quarterly inflation in Australia was similar to New Zealand – 3.9%pa in the June quarter in Australia compared to 4.1%pa in New Zealand – core inflation in Australia is higher than in New Zealand, with forecasts for interest rates to rise in both countries, but remain higher in Australia.

Australia’s housing market is also looking far more volatile than New Zealand’s – Australian house prices have continued to soar in recent years even as New Zealand housing became more affordable after prices dropped back. After continuing to become increasingly expensive and unaffordable, Australian house prices are now expected to reverse sharply following government tax changes.

Not everything has changed. Australia’s unemployment rate remains lower than in New Zealand – at 4.4% over the June 2026 quarter compared to New Zealand’s 5.6% rate. But the unemployment rate has been increasing in both countries, suggesting that job expectations in Australia have come down from earlier levels.

Migration decisions are ultimately about relative opportunities, and for much of the last few years New Zealanders have had plenty of reasons to look offshore. Higher wages, stronger labour markets, and different lifestyle opportunities have encouraged a sizeable number of Kiwis to head overseas, particularly to Australia. But those comparisons are becoming less clear-cut. Job markets in the UK and Australia have softened, Australian housing remains expensive, and higher interest rates add further pressure to household finances across the Tasman. New Zealand’s own economic challenges haven’t disappeared, and there is still a substantial net outflow of Kiwis. But as conditions elsewhere become more difficult, fewer New Zealanders appear to be leaving and more are coming home. For anyone contemplating whether opportunities might be better overseas, the latest trends provide a useful reminder: apparently, the grass isn’t always greener.