New Zealand’s economic recovery advanced further in the June 2026 quarter, despite headwinds from the Iran War, according to Infometrics’ latest monitoring of regional economies. Provisional estimates from the Infometrics June 2026 Quarterly Economic Monitor suggests that economic activity rose 2.6%pa in the June 2026 quarter, and up 1.7%pa over the year to June 2026.
“All 16 regional economies expanded in the June 2026 quarter” said Infometrics Principal Economist Nick Brunsdon. “Growth continues to be led from the south, with Southland, Otago, Canterbury and Nelson-Tasman all growing at over 2%pa in the year to June 2026. Parts of the North Island are joining in too, with growth seen in both Waikato and the Bay of Plenty.”
“Despite the clear economic headwinds from conflict in the Middle East, economic activity might not have been as badly hit as first feared. The more upbeat result is due to a combination of the weaker economy last year, and less of an intense hit to the economy – so far – from the Iran War.” said Mr Brunsdon. “Strong primary sector activity remains a key driver, but growth has emerged across most industries this quarter. That said, we remain concerned about the pace of recovery over the rest of 2026 amid continued global uncertainty.”
Employment remains a few steps behind the recovery of economic activity. Job numbers rose 0.4%pa nationally in the June 2026 quarter, including a 0.3%pa lift in Auckland, marking the end of a two-year decline. However, six regions still faced job declines this quarter. At the same time, the unemployment rate has increased further too, with restrained jobs growth and still-low job ads not keeping pace with the number of people wanting work.
“Amidst a weak labour market, household spending remains delicate, with Marketview card spending data showing a 0.6%pa increase in the year to June 2026. Infometrics estimates that spending volumes fell 1.5%pa over the last year once retail inflation is accounted for, with higher prices including for fuel reducing the real level of spending activity.”
“Tourism activity continues to expand, with a 3.6%pa lift in commercial guest nights recorded over the June 2026 year. A 9.1%pa lift in international guest nights drove this result, as international tourism’s recovery rolls on, even as domestic guest nights rose a sluggish 0.6%pa as higher fuel prices restrained Kiwi holidays across the country,” said Mr Brunsdon.
Residential construction intentions continue to build, with a 19%pa lift to over 40,000 consents over the 12 months to June 2026. Provincial areas contributed the most to this increase, with consents up 22%pa, closely followed by a 20%pa lift in consents in metro areas – but consents in rural areas fell 5.3%, as population trends adjust across the country.
ENDS
Attachment – map showing employment growth by region
Note:
The Infometrics Quarterly Economic Monitor is a series of reports about local economies, rather than one comprehensive report. This media release provides a high-level overview of trends and changes to regional economies.
More details about the Quarterly Economic Monitor can be found here: https://www.infometrics.co.nz/product/quarterly-economic-monitor
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