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Economic updates

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Monetary policy review

OCR on hold, but set to lift slightly quicker

18 Feb 2026

Our take on the latest Monetary policy review (Wed 18 Feb 2026)

Official cash rate (OCR)

First OCR rise now expected

Financial markets picking

2.25%

Dec-26 qtr

Sep or Oct

Unchanged

A quarter earlier than last MPS

For the first increase

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Latest updates

Monetary policy review

Reserve Bank holds at 2.25%, but watches vigilantly

2.25% Official cash rate unchanged

Bank places more emphasis on potential inflationary risks

4.2% Annual inflation forecast to accelerate by June this year

Monetary policy review

OCR cut to 2.25% looks like the last

Wed 26 Nov 2025

OCR down by 25bp to 2.25%

Bank steers away from signalling further cuts

GDP growth forecast to accelerate to 2.8%pa by Mar 2027

Monetary policy review

OCR down to 2.5% as RBNZ cuts big

OCR cut by 50bp to 2.5%

Another 25-point cut likely in November

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