Premium
Monetary policy review

OCR up for first time in three years, as expected

8 Jul 2026
Gareth Kiernan's-profile-photo
Gareth Kiernan

Our take on the latest Monetary policy review (Wed 8 Jul 2026)

Official cash rate
Inflation
Further rate rises likely
2.5%
From 2.25%
Now expected by the Bank to peak at 3.9%pa
But uncertainty about the timing

Want to read more?

Infometrics premium economic updates are available exclusively to individuals from subscribing organisations.

Do you already have a subscription to one of Infometric's products?

If you would like to subscribe your organisation or get an account under your organisations existing subscription, please get in touch.

Latest updates

Premium
Monetary policy review

Split decision keeps OCR at 2.25% for now

Wed 27 May 2026
2.25% Official cash rate unchanged
Casting vote made by Governor with a 3-3 vote split among Committee members
RBNZ forecast OCR to reach 3% by end of 2026
Monetary policy review

Reserve Bank holds at 2.25%, but watches vigilantly

Wed 8 Apr 2026
2.25% Official cash rate unchanged
Bank places more emphasis on potential inflationary risks
4.2% Annual inflation forecast to accelerate by June this year
Monetary policy review

OCR on hold, but set to lift slightly quicker

Wed 18 Feb 2026
2.25% Official cash rate (OCR) unchanged
Dec-26 qtr First OCR rise now expected a quarter earlier than last MPS
Sep or Oct Financial markets picking for the first increase