Our take on the latest Monetary policy review (Wed 27 May 2026)
Official cash rate
Casting vote made by Governor
RBNZ forecast OCR to reach 3%
2.25%
Unchanged
With a 3-3 vote split among Committee members
By end of 2026
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Monetary policy review
OCR up for first time in three years, as expected
Wed 8 Jul 2026
2.5% Official cash rate from 2.25%
Inflation now expected by the Bank to peak at 3.9%pa
Further rate rises likely but uncertainty about the timingMonetary policy review
Reserve Bank holds at 2.25%, but watches vigilantly
Wed 8 Apr 2026
2.25% Official cash rate unchangedBank places more emphasis on potential inflationary risks4.2% Annual inflation forecast to accelerate by June this yearMonetary policy review
OCR on hold, but set to lift slightly quicker
Wed 18 Feb 2026
2.25% Official cash rate (OCR) unchangedDec-26 qtr First OCR rise now expected a quarter earlier than last MPS
Sep or Oct Financial markets picking for the first increase