Our take on the latest National population estimates (Mon 17 Nov 2025)
Total NZ population estimate
5,334,200
As of September 2025
Population grows 0.6%pa in September 2025 quarter
Net migration edges up to 12,500 for year ending September 2025
The key numbers...
- New Zealand’s resident population grew just 0.6%pa in the September 2025 quarter, the same as in the June 2025 quarter. New Zealand’s population is estimated to total 5,334,200 as at September 2025.
- Net migration edged up to 12,500 in the year to September 2025, after migration in the year to June 2025 was revised down from 13,700 to 10,500. Except during the pandemic, the last time net migration was at this level was in September 2013.
- Natural increase has largely tracked sideways, with a mere 2.0% increase over the year to September 2025, to 20,500. Natural increase has been in long-term decline, down 7,300 from the year to September 2015.
- The under-15-year-old population continues to slip, falling 0.8%pa in the September 2025 quarter. The 20-34-year-old age group also continues to fall, down 1.3%pa. At the other end of life, the 65-years-and-older age group rose 3.1%pa, and up 4.3%pa for the 75-years-and-older age group.
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Dwelling growth has slowed to 1.5%pa in September 2025, unchanged from the June 2025 quarter, the lowest rate since 2014, reflecting subdued residential construction activity.
Population growth ranges widely from young to old
Annual % change, NZ population
...and our reaction
- New Zealand’s population growth has settled in at the low level of 0.6%pa, reflecting soft net migration driven by a weak labour market. There remains an appreciable gap between New Zealand’s unemployment rate of 5.3% and Australia’s 4.4%, which incentivises the shift of Kiwis across the ditch. We expect that New Zealand’s unemployment rate is at or near its peak, but we don’t expect it to come down quickly, meaning that weak net migration is here to stay.
- Migration flows have stabilised over the past six months, with an annual net loss of 46,400 New Zealand citizens, and 58,200 net gain of non-New Zealand-citizens. Non-citizen arrivals remain stubbornly high, at 112,600 in the year to September 2025, which is surprising given how weak the labour market is.
- We remain concerned about the 0.8%pa fall in under-15’s, which implies a more enduring loss of population than the 1.3%pa fall in 20-34-year-olds alone, as families are unlikely to move with their children for an OE. Losing children weakens our future supply of labour force entrants. Losing 20-34-year-olds weakens the future supply of children, as this is prime childbearing age. The 4.3%pa growth in the 75-years-and-older age group signals a rise in demand on health and social services that outstrips growth of new taxpayers.
Latest updates
Premium
National population estimates
Population growth lifted by increasing migration
Mon 18 May 2026
Quarterly
5,361,300 Total NZ population estimate as at March 2026
0.8%pa Population growth in March 2026 quarter24,200 Net migration over the year to March 2026Premium
National population estimates
Population growth steady at 0.6%pa
Tue 17 Feb 2026
Quarterly
5,342,000 Total NZ population estimate as at December 20250.6%pa Population growth in December 2025 quarter
14,200 Net migration over the year to December 2025National population estimates
Population growth now just 0.7%pa
Tue 19 Aug 2025
Quarterly
5,324,700 Total NZ population estimate as at June 2025
Population grows 0.7%pa in June 2025 quarter
Net migration eases to 13,700 for year ending June 2025