Our take on the latest National population estimates (Tue 17 Feb 2026)
Total NZ population estimate
Population growth
Net migration
5,342,000
0.6%pa
14,200As at December 2025
In December 2025 quarter
Over the year to December 2025
The key numbers...
- New Zealand’s estimated resident population rose 0.6%pa in the December 2025 quarter, the third quarter in a row at this modest rate of growth. New Zealand’s population is estimated to total 5,342,000 as of 31 December 2025.
- Net migration edged up to 14,200 over the year to December 2025, after September 2025 year migration was revised down from 12,500 to 9,600.
- Natural increase (births minus deaths) continues to slowly reduce, totalling 20,200 in the year to December 2025, down 3.3% from 2024 and down 24% from 2019.
- Younger age group populations continue to reduce, with a 1.0%pa fall in the under-15-year-olds and a 1.2% fall in 20-34-year-olds cohort in the December 2025 quarter. However, the 65-years-and-older age group rose 3.3%pa, the fastest growth since 2020.
- The estimated number of private dwellings rose 1.5%pa in the December 2025 quarter, continuing to outpace population growth. The estimated number of people per dwelling fell to 2.49, the lowest rate since this series began in 1991.
...and our reaction
- Population growth remains muted at 0.6%pa, reflecting an ageing population, coupled with a weak labour market driving weak migration. New Zealand’s unemployment rate rose further to 5.4% in December 2025, as Australia’s unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. This labour market differential is a strong incentive for migration across the ditch to continue.
- The 1.0%pa fall in under-15s is the worst decline on record since this series began in 1992. Back then, in 1992, under-15’s outnumbered over-65’s more than two-to-one, but in 2025 the two age groups are nearly equal in number.
- It is timely to see superannuation policy being debated over the past week, as new population estimates show a yawning gap between young and old. Discussion often focuses on rapid growth in the 65+ age group, but the 1.0%pa fall in under-15s is just as concerning, as indicates weak supply of new workers and taxpayers in coming years.
Latest updates
Premium
National population estimates
Slight pick-up in population growth
Tue 18 Aug 2026
Quarterly
5,357,300 Total NZ population estimate as at June 20260.7%pa Population growth in June 2026 quarter17,600 Net migration gain over the year to June 2026Premium
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Population growth lifted by increasing migration
Mon 18 May 2026
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5,361,300 Total NZ population estimate as at March 20260.8%pa Population growth in March 2026 quarter24,200 Net migration over the year to March 2026National population estimates
Population growth steady at 0.6%pa
Mon 17 Nov 2025
Quarterly
5,334,200 Total NZ population estimate as of September 2025
Population grows 0.6%pa in September 2025 quarterNet migration edges up to 12,500 for year ending September 2025