National population estimates

Population growth now just 0.7%pa

19 Aug 2025

Our take on the latest National population estimates (Tue 19 Aug 2025)

Total NZ population estimate

5,324,700

As at June 2025

Population grows 0.7%pa in June 2025 quarter

Net migration eases to 13,700 for year ending June 2025

New Zealand’s resident population grew just 0.7%pa in the June 2025 quarter, technically a slowdown from 0.70%pa in the March 2025 quarter to 0.66% in the June 2025 quarter. New Zealand’s population is estimated to total 5,324,700 as at June 2025.
Net migration continued to slow, with an annual total of 13,700 in the year to June, down from 16,000 in the year to March 2025. The last time net migration was below 15,000pa was in the year to September 2013 (excluding lockdown affected periods).
Slowing net migration was the main driver of the slowdown in population growth, but natural increase (the difference between births and deaths) also contributed, down by a modest 2.0%pa in the June 2025 quarter.
Growth in the 10-14-year-old population turned negative in the June quarter, down 0.3%pa, the last time this age group shrunk was in 2015. The 20-34-year-old population also fell, down 1.4%pa over the year to June. The 65-years-and-older population continued to grow at 3.0%pa, staying at or above 3.0%pa for the past five quarters.
A slowdown in dwelling growth continued, growing 1.6%pa in the year to June 2025, the slowest rate since mid-2020. Although growth is slowing, it remains around the 1.7%pa average observed over the past decade.

Annual % change, New Zealand population

The labour market has deteriorated significantly over the past year and is a likely contributor to at least some of the slowdown in net migration. The differential between the NZ (5.2%) and Australian (4.3% in June) unemployment rates is an additional pull for Kiwis to make the move across the ditch. The NZ unemployment rate is expected to remain above 5.0% until the middle of next year, so net migration is unlikely to materially lift any time soon.
Migration outflows of New Zealand citizens totalled nearly 72,000 in the year to June 2025, the highest annual outflow since mid-2012. However, this was counterbalanced by inflows of New Zealand citizens of 25,300, and a net gain of 59,500 non-citizens.
Population growth is likely to remain subdued given the state of the labour market in the near-term and the decline in 20-34-year-old population. Growth is unlikely to return to levels seen post the borders re-opening without a strong labour market recovery, paired with much higher levels of net migration.
Demographic changes are decades in the making, with the continued rapid growth of the 65-year-and-older age group today a function of birth rates in the 1950s. However, the loss of young people through migration is a function of conditions today, and will exacerbate the challenge of supporting an ageing population.

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