Real estate statistics
Surplus of properties for sale restricts price growth
14 Oct 2025
Our take on the latest Real estate statistics (Tue 14 Oct 2025)
House prices up 0.2% from August (sa)
House sales down 2.5% from August (sa)
Stock of properties for sale up 1.0% from August (sa)
The key numbers...
- House prices rose 0.2% in September from August (seasonally adjusted), rising for the second consecutive month for the first time since February. House prices are up just 0.2% from a year ago, smaller than the 0.5% annual gain recorded in August.
- House sales fell 2.5% in September from August, but remain moderately higher than a year ago, up 3.1%pa.
- The number sales in the past year was 14% higher than in the year to September 2024. The regions that saw the strongest growth in sales were Marlborough (+24%), Waikato (+20%), and Canterbury (+19%). The areas with the weakest growth in sales were Gisborne (+5.7%), Wellington (+9.1%), and Auckland (+10%).
- The stock of properties available for sale rose 1.0% from August, increasing for the second consecutive month. The number of new listings remains volatile, falling 0.6% in September, following a 4.2% rise in the previous month. At around 33,500, the number of properties available for sale is at its highest since mid-2015 (all figures seasonally adjusted).
House prices up 0.2% on a year ago
Annual % change, house price index (HPI)
...and our reaction
- House prices have been narrowly higher than a year ago for the past five months, following a nine-month stretch of annual declines. Prices in Auckland (-1.0%pa) and Wellington (-2.6%pa) remain a major drag on any upward momentum in national house prices. Prices in other regions such as Gisborne (+5.9%pa), Southland (+5.7%pa), and Canterbury (+2.8%pa) are helping the national annual house price change to remain positive.
- The median length of time to sell fell by two days to 44 days (seasonally adjusted), the shortest length since April 2025. Despite the moderation, the time to sell is likely to remain elevated, given the sheer number of properties on the market.
- Last week the Reserve Bank cut the official cash rate (OCR) by 50 basis points to 2.5%, and we expect the OCR to reach a low of 2.25% in this cycle, lower than the 3% previously anticipated in our July forecasts. Despite lower borrowing costs, challenges around poor housing affordability and low rental yields remain, making justifications for investment difficult.
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