Our take on the latest Real estate statistics (Tue 16 Dec 2025)
House prices down 0.2% from October (sa)
House sales down 4.5% from October (sa)
Stock of properties for sale up 0.2% from October (sa)
The key numbers...
- House prices fell 0.2% in November from October, and they have failed to rise over the past two months following two consecutive rises in August and September (seasonally adjusted). House prices were 0.2% lower than in November 2024, down from a year ago for the first time since April 2025.
- House sales fell 4.5% in November from October, reversing the 4.5% gain in the previous month (seasonally adjusted). Sales were 5.7% lower than a year ago, which was the first annual decline since June 2024, and just the second fall since April 2023.
- The stock of properties available for sale rose 0.2% in November from October, lifting for the fourth consecutive month. The number of new listings fell 2.2% but remained significantly higher than a year ago, up 11%pa. The number of properties available for sale is at its highest level since April 2015 (all figures seasonally adjusted).
House sales flattening out
Monthly house sales, seasonally adjusted
...and our reaction
- House sales had been on a broadly upward trend since early 2023, but they appear to have flattened out in recent months. As the number of properties available sale sits at a more than 10-year high, there appears to be a solid lid on near-term house price growth, despite mortgage rates falling markedly over the past 12-18 months. House price growth could end 2025 in the red, as annual declines reappeared in November.
- The median length of time to sell remained at 45 days in November (seasonally adjusted). Given the flattening trend in sales and the elevated level of properties available for sale, the average length of time on the market is unlikely to moderate materially in the near-term.
- Longer-term fixed mortgage rates have risen recently as markets have reacted to both the Reserve Bank’s November Monetary Policy Statement and stronger indicators of economic activity released in the last week. Market pricing on the official cash rate (OCR) indicates an 88% chance of the OCR lifting back up to 2.5% by September 2026.
- However, there could be some reversal in market pricing, given new Reserve Bank Governor Dr Anna Breman’s statement yesterday that “if economic conditions evolve as expected the OCR is likely to remain at its current level of 2.25 per cent for some time.” Dr Breman’s comments did not communicate new information, but they highlighted that markets had overreacted to the Bank’s statement last month. She also stated that “financial market conditions have tightened since the November decision, beyond what is implied by our central projection for the OCR.”
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