National population estimates

Population growth slows to 0.9%pa

15 May 2025

Nick Brunsdon

Our take on the latest National population estimates (Thu 15 May 2025)

Total NZ population estimate

5,330,600

As at March 2025

Population growth slows to 0.9%pa in March 2025 quarter

Net migration eases to 26,400 for year ending March 2025

The key numbers...

New Zealand’s resident population rose just 0.9%pa in the March 2025 quarter, down slightly from 1.0%pa in December 2024, and down considerably from 2.3%pa in March 2024. New Zealand’s population is estimated to total 5,330,600 as at March 2025. This total includes a downward revision by Stats NZ, who estimate of New Zealand’s population in December 2024 to be 42,800 lower than previously stated. Stats NZ normally revises their population estimates each quarter, but this quarter also includes revisions stemming from the 2023 Census.
Net migration continues to decline, but at a slowing rate, moderating from 29,900 in the year to December 2024 to 26,400 in the year to March 2025. Migration in the year to March 2025 was just over a quarter of the 100,400 recorded in the year to March 2024.
The effect of slowing net migration is most pronounced in young adults and young children. New Zealand’s 0-5-year-old population fell 1.1%pa in the March 2025 quarter, and 25-34-year-olds fell 1.5%pa. The fastest growing age groups were relatively unaffected by migration, with 75-79-year-olds up 5.1%pa, and 85-89-year-olds up 5.5%pa.
Natural increase (the difference between births and deaths) totalled 20,900 in the year to March 2025, down by a modest 1.8%pa in the March 2025 quarter. Natural increase has fallen by 19% in total over the past five years.
Dwelling growth continues to slow but remains at a historically high level, up 1.8%pa in the March 2025 quarter. Prior to the pandemic, the last time New Zealand surpassed this rate of dwelling growth was in 2005. Dwelling growth now still reflects a legacy of strong building consents in previous years.

Population growth slows for under-65s

Annual % change, NZ population

...and our reaction

New Zealand’s population growth continues to slow, coming down from record high population growth. Although net migration of 26,400 in the year to March 2024 is weak compared to the past three years, it is perfectly normal compared to the past 25 years. Net migration is unlikely to improve any time soon as unemployment is expected to stay relatively high for the coming year at least.
Migration outflows of New Zealand citizens reached 70,000 in the year to March 2025, close to record highs last seen in 2012, signifying a significant brain drain. Loss of citizens, especially in key younger age groups, will undermine natural increase in coming years and contribute to further imbalance in our population’s age structure.
Continued weakness in the 0-14-year-old age group (down 0.3%pa) and 15-34-year-old (0%pa) raises concern for future birth numbers, as this trend diminishes New Zealand’s population of childbearing age, both now and into the future. Especially so as the 65-years-and-older population rose 3.2%pa, which will grow demand on the public purse and put pressure on the labour market. The number of under-65-year-olds for every over-65-year-old has deteriorated from 5.5 to 5.0 in just the past five years.

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