Commercial registrations and activity
Commercial vehicle registrations fall further
13 Jan 2025
Our take on the latest Commercial registrations and activity (Mon 13 Jan 2025)
Very heavy registrations down 21%pa in December 2024 quarter
Medium registrations down 32%pa in December 2024 quarter
Light commercial registrations up 48%pa in December 2024 quarter
The key numbers...
- New very heavy commercial vehicle registrations fell 21%pa in the December 2024 quarter compared to a year earlier. The annual total in December 2024 was 2,624, its lowest level in almost two years.
- New medium commercial vehicle registrations fell for the sixth consecutive quarter, down 32%pa from December 2023 to 444. The three-month running total was below 500 for the first time since February 2021. The annual total of new medium commercial registrations fell to 2,279, the lowest since September 2021.
- There were 7,221 new light commercial vehicles registered in the December 2024 quarter, which was 48% higher than the same quarter in 2023. The annual total of 33,162 new light commercial vehicles was 10% higher than the year to December 2023, with growth turning positive for the first time since September 2022.
Weak demand for heavy comms continues
New heavy comm. vehicle registrations, annual running totals
...and our reaction
- Light commercial vehicle registrations rebounded at the beginning of 2024 after two extremely weak quarters to end 2023, following the rush to avoid higher fees from changes to the Clean Car discount at the end of the June 2023 quarter. New light commercial vehicle registrations have now fallen for three consecutive quarters, illustrating a different story to the 48%pa annual increase, which appears artificially strong due to weakness in the comparative December 2023 quarter.
- Very heavy commercial registrations have begun to follow the earlier falls in medium commercial registrations, illustrating the longer lead times for very heavy trucks compared to other commercial vehicle types. The decline in very heavy commercial registrations confirms widespread weakness across all commercial vehicle types.
- Business confidence soared as cuts were made to the official cash rate in the second half of 2024, and residential and commercial construction expectations also climbed. The outlook for builders should begin to improve as standalone consents have stabilised and attached dwellings are showing signs of life. However, this recent uptick will take time to work through into increased building activity, meaning it may be some time before additional demand for new commercial vehicles comes through.
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