National population estimates
Population growth eases as Kiwis venture overseas
15 May 2024
Our take on the latest National population estimates (Wed 15 May 2024)
5,338,900
Population growth remains high at 2.5%pa
Annual net migration eases slightly to 111,200
The key numbers...
- New Zealand’s resident population grew an estimated 2.5%pa in the March 2024 quarter, following revised 3.0%pa growth in the December 2023 quarter. The estimated population now totals 5,338,900.
- Net migration has continued easing to a still-high 111,200 over the year to March 2024. This slowdown comes alongside upwards revisions to previous figures, with the December 2023 quarter estimates revised up to 134,500 from 126,000 previously.
- Surging migration in recent quarters pushed working-age population (15-64 years old) growth ahead of 65+ population growth. However, the slight pullback in net migration in the March 2024 quarter has throttled back working age population growth to 2.8%pa, behind the strong and steady 65+ group at 3.1%pa. Growth for the 65+ age group has consistently remained above 3% since March 2023.
- Growth in the number of households slowed to 2.0%pa in the March 2024 quarter from 2.1%pa previously. Similarly, growth in the number of private dwellings eased from 2.1%pa in the December quarter, to 2.0%pa.
65+ population growth edges above the working-age population
Annual % change, NZ population
...and our reaction
- New Zealand population growth remains historically elevated, though easing net migration decelerates overall population growth from the “very very fast” rate in December to “very fast”.
- We expect net migration to continue gradually decelerating from the record-highs of late 2023 as a slowing economy slows demand for labour. Tightened immigration settings implemented in April 2024 are expected to dent non-citizen arrivals as the Accredited Employer Worker Visa scheme conditions place greater emphasis on meeting labour demand needs locally prior to bringing in migrant labour. By September 2024, we expect annual net migration to dip to below 100,000pa.
- While population growth remains strong, driven by strong net migration, we are seeing signs of the so-called “brain drain”, with departures of New Zealand citizens reaching a record high of 78,200 in the year to March 2024. With competitive wages overseas in places like Australia and a rising unemployment meaning more local competition for jobs, some working-age Kiwis will see this as the perfect opportunity to venture overseas. Strong departures of New Zealand citizens could have a disproportionate impact on regions that are losing workers to overseas without attracting inbound migrants.
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