Commercial registrations and activity
Light commercials rebound, but the trend is downward
10 Apr 2024
Our take on the latest Commercial registrations and activity (Wed 10 Apr 2024)
Light commercial registrations up 13%pa in March 2024 quarter
Very heavy registrations up 2.9%pa in March 2024 quarter
Medium registrations down 8.3%pa in March 2024 quarter
The key numbers...
- Some 10,006 new light commercial vehicles were registered in the March 2024 quarter, an increase of 13%pa on the same quarter in 2023 following a 49%pa decrease in the December 2023 quarter. The total of 31,294 new light commercial vehicles registered in the year to March 2024 was well down from the peak of 51,563 in the year to March 2022.
- New medium commercial vehicle registrations fell 8.3%pa to 633 in the March 2024 quarter compared with the same quarter a year ago. This fall was the third consecutive quarterly decline, following 19%pa and 11%pa decreases in the September and December 2023 quarters respectively. New medium commercial vehicle registrations are now well past their 2023 peak, down 8.4%pa over the year to March 2024.
- New very heavy commercial registrations rose 2.9%pa to 267 in the March 2024 quarter compared with the March 2023 quarter. On an annual basis, the steady increase in new very heavy commercial registrations since 2021 looks like it has peaked in the first couple of months of this year.
Light commercials rebound, but the trend is downward
New light commercial registrations, annual running total
...and our reaction
- Light commercial registration numbers were severely affected by the removal of the Clean Car Discount Scheme at the end of 2023, which encouraged buyers to postpone their purchases until the new year. The expected rebound happened, but the lift in quarterly registrations of 1,140 vehicles compared with March 2023 failed to make up for the corresponding drop of almost 4,700 vehicles in the December 2023 quarter.
- At just over 30,000pa, new light commercial registrations are now well down from their peak of over 50,000pa in 2022. Falling construction sector activity, rising borrowing rates, and pressures on household and business finances are making potential buyers reluctant to commit to large purchases.
- Medium commercial registrations are also easing, and very heavy commercial registrations are showing signs of having peaked. Long lead times for the supply of trucks from overseas that were ordered when economic conditions were considerably stronger go some way to explaining the recent momentum in medium and very heavy commercials. But with builders facing weakening construction activity, and farmers dealing with falling commodity prices and continued cost pressures, it was only a matter of time before this momentum dissipated.
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