Commercial registrations and activity

A turning point for very heavy commercial registrations?

11 Oct 2023

Our take on the latest Commercial registrations and activity (Wed 11 Oct 2023)

Very heavy new commercial registrations down 6.2%pa in September

New light commercial registrations still at only 64% of usual monthly levels

Annual road user charge kilometres purchased down 3%pa

There were 273 new very heavy commercial vehicle registrations in September 2023, a fall of 6.2% from last year and the first annual decline since last December.
On an annual basis, new very heavy registrations remain at a near record high of 2,964, after the annual record of 2,982 seen last month, and above the previous highs of 2,612 seen in late 2005 and 2,702 in mid-2019.
New light commercial vehicle registrations remain subdued, with September registrations down 44% from a year ago. In seasonally adjusted terms, light commercial registrations are still at only around two-thirds of usual monthly registration trends seen in the first five months of 2023, before changes to the Clean Car Discount were announced and implemented.
Medium vehicle registrations are also subdued, but to a lesser extent, with new medium registrations down 18%pa in September.
Road User Charges (RUC) distances purchased were lower than a year ago across the board in the September month, which has solidified the falls in annual RUC distances purchased compared to a year ago. Light RUC distances purchased over the year to September were down 3.1%pa, medium RUCs down 12%pa, and very heavy RUCs down 5.3%pa.

Annual running totals

Changes in July to the Clean Car Discount continue to linger over the commercial vehicle market, with light commercial registrations still the most affected. There’s been little in the way of a recovery in registrations, with a bumper month of pre-purchasing giving way to a subdued period of registrations that is set to continue.
The shift in light registrations has stolen the limelight from the strong and continued growth in very heavy commercial vehicle registrations over the last year. Annual registrations have hit their highest ever annual total, with seemingly strong demand despite concerns over the economic outlook.
Our conversations with the transport sector have previously highlighted that stronger current registrations were likely due to earlier purchasing decisions that were delayed due to supply chain disruptions. As a result, current registration levels are likely to indicate previous rather than current demand conditions.
RUC distances purchased for very heavy vehicles have been falling for nearly all of the 2023 calendar year so far and are likely a better representation of current economic demand for heavier transport. Less freight to be moved around will require fewer RUC kilometres to be purchased. This falling RUC trend, in tandem with the fall in very heavy registrations on an annual basis for the first time in nine months, suggests a turning point could be on the cards.

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