National population estimates
Surging net migration drives population growth
18 May 2023
Our take on the latest National population estimates (Thu 18 May 2023)
Total NZ population estimate
5,199,100
As at March 2023
Population growth lifts to 1.6%pa in the March 2023 quarter
Annual net migration reached 65,400
The key numbers...
- The estimated resident population of New Zealand rose to 5,199,100 in March 2023, up 1.6%pa from the March 2022 quarter. This growth was the first annual increase greater than 1% since the September 2020 quarter.
- Annual growth in the number of private dwellings remained at 2.3%pa, and the estimated number of households also rose 2.3%pa.
- The rate of natural increase (births minus deaths) continues to decline, slipping to 18,600 over the year to March 2023. For comparison, the natural increase was 26,600 in the year to March 2022.
- There was a net inflow of 32,400 migrants in the March 2023 quarter, the highest quarterly result since March 2020, when a wave of New Zealanders returned home before the border closure.
- The number of people aged under 15 rose 0.1%pa in the March 2023 quarter, after a year of consecutive declines. Growth in the 65-years-and-older age group accelerated to 3.1%pa.
- The working-age population (15-64) received a boost of 1.7%pa, after more than two years of soft growth.
Net migration leads growth
Year-end contributors to population change
...and our reaction
- Further changes to immigration policy (an updated Green List and an extension of working holiday visas) and strong demand for labour has caused work visa approvals to soar, reaching 42,400 in the year to March 2023. These changes have provided a much-needed boost to the working-age population, given the extreme tightness in New Zealand’s labour market. Resident and student visa approvals have also climbed over the last year, but to a much lesser extent. In the near-term, a continuation of current migrant inflows could easily push net migration over 100,000 people per annum!
- By late 2023, we expect demand for workers to begin to ease, both due to the labour shortage being addressed and a broader downturn in the economy. As a result, we expect net migration to taper off and therefore slow down working-age population growth.
- Growth in the number of households softened slightly from the December 2022 quarter as mortgage rates rise and construction activity starts to ease. We expect this softening will persist over the next year as economic activity cools and households refix their mortgages onto much higher rates. However, household formation remains high compared to the long-term average and is expected to rise over the long-term as the population ages, with older people tending to live in smaller, one or two-person households.
- An increasing number of deaths as the population ages, coupled with trends such as growing numbers of childless couples and women deferring childbirth, means we expect the rate of natural increase will continue to decline.
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