Our take on the latest National population estimates (Mon 20 Feb 2023)
Total NZ population estimate
5,151,600
As at December 2022
Population growth lifts to 0.7%pa in the December 2022 quarter
Net inflow of 16,300 migrants in the December 2022 quarter
The key numbers...
- New Zealand’s estimated resident population was 5,151,600 in December 2022, a 0.7% increase compared to December 2021.
- The estimated number of households increased 2.4%pa in December 2022.
- Annual net migration was positive for the first time since December 2020, with a net inflow of 15,800 people over the year to December 2022.
- At 19,400 in the year, natural increase remained weak in December, down 8,400 from December 2021. The soft natural increase figure was driven by a 10%pa increase in the number of registered deaths in the year ended December 2022.
- The number of residents aged 0-9 years fell 1.2% between December 2021 and 2022.
- The number of people in their 20s declined again in December 2022, with the number of residents aged 20-24 and 25-29 falling 1.4% and 2.8%pa respectively.
- The number of residents aged 65 years or older grew strongly in December, up 3.1% compared to December 2021.
Household growth playing catch-up over pandemic
Annual % changes
...and our reaction
- New Zealand’s borders were re-opened in the September quarter after 2½ years of COVID-19 restrictions, which had severely limited migrant arrivals. Despite restrictions being relaxed in the September 2022 quarter, the government’s “immigration reset” and limited processing capacity at Immigration NZ meant net migration was slow to pick up in the September 2022 quarter itself. However, further loosening of immigration settings and a ramp up in visa-processing capacity at Immigration NZ have led to strong net migration in the December 2022 quarter, with 16,300 more people entering than departing.
- Population growth has been soft since mid-2020, but household growth has accelerated over this period, implying there are fewer people in each household since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. The strong increase in the estimated number of households is being driven by the aging of New Zealand’s population, as older people tend to live in smaller households. The effect of New Zealand’s aging population on the number of households has been limited over the previous 10-15 years due to low housing affordability. However, the effects of an aging population began to filter through in the last two years, as slower population growth and a higher rate of new home building have enabled people to spread out more.
- We anticipate the downturn in the housing market, construction activity, and the wider domestic economy in late 2023 and 2024 will slow the rate of household formation. Households will struggle with high interest rates and rising unemployment, and these strains on household budgets will override the effects of falling house prices on housing affordability.
Latest updates
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