National population estimates
Quarterly net migration positive for the first time in two years
17 Nov 2022
Our take on the latest National population estimates (Thu 17 Nov 2022)
Total NZ population estimate
5,127,400
As at September 2022
Population growth stays low at 0.2%pa
Net inflow of 4,600 migrants in September 2022 quarter
The key numbers...
- New Zealand’s estimated resident population grew 0.2% in the year to September 2022, reaching 5,127,400.
- Annual net migration was negative, with a net outflow of 8,400 people over the year to September 2022.
- Natural increase was soft in the 12 months September 2022, down 23%pa compared to the September 2021 year. However, natural increase still contributed to population growth, with births exceeding deaths by an estimated 20,900 people.
- The number of residents in their 20s continued to decline in the three months to September 2022, totalling just under 675,000, a 7.3% fall from the recent peak in March 2020.
- The strongest population growth in the September 2022 quarter was in the older age brackets, with the number of people aged at least 65 years old up 2.7%pa.
Ageing of population accelerated by young departures
Annual average % changes
...and our reaction
- The re-opening of New Zealand’s borders had a substantial impact on net migration in September, as 4,600 more people entered than departed in the three months to September 2022 – the first quarterly net inflow for two years.
- The younger population declined again in September, with the population of 20-29 year olds falling for the tenth consecutive quarter. Nearly 22,900 people departed New Zealand in the September 2022 quarter, as young people continue to be drawn overseas.
- New Zealand’s population was already ageing, as evidenced by the growing number of older people, and a persistent drain of young people will accelerate this process. The pent-up demand to travel should be largely spent at this point, meaning that the ongoing declines in the number of young people could be driven by other factors. It seems likely that those aged 20-29 years old are attracted overseas by higher wages or a lower cost of living, both of which are likely to be offered in a tight Australian labour market over the next few years.
Latest updates
Premium
National population estimates
Slight pick-up in population growth
Tue 18 Aug 2026
Quarterly
5,357,300 Total NZ population estimate as at June 2026
0.7%pa Population growth in June 2026 quarter17,600 Net migration gain over the year to June 2026Premium
National population estimates
Population growth lifted by increasing migration
Mon 18 May 2026
Quarterly
5,361,300 Total NZ population estimate as at March 20260.8%pa Population growth in March 2026 quarter24,200 Net migration over the year to March 2026National population estimates
Population growth steady at 0.6%pa
Tue 17 Feb 2026
Quarterly
5,342,000 Total NZ population estimate as at December 20250.6%pa Population growth in December 2025 quarter14,200 Net migration over the year to December 2025National population estimates
Population growth steady at 0.6%pa
Mon 17 Nov 2025
Quarterly
5,334,200 Total NZ population estimate as of September 2025
Population grows 0.6%pa in September 2025 quarterNet migration edges up to 12,500 for year ending September 2025