Our take on the latest National population estimates (Mon 16 May 2022)
Total NZ population estimate
5,127,100
As of March 2022
Population growth steady at 0.4%pa
Annual net migration -7,300 in the year ended March 2022
The key numbers...
- New Zealand’s estimated resident population grew 0.4% in the year to March 2022, reaching 5,127,100.
- Annual net migration was negative, with a net outflow of 7,300 people over the year to March 2022.
- Natural increase kept population growth positive, with births exceeding deaths by an estimated 26,500 people in the year to March 2022.
The working age population shrank 0.2% in the March year, with a 3.1% reduction in the number of people in their 20s over the last 12 months as more young people headed overseas.
Brain drain underway
Estimated population, annual % change
...and our reaction
- The brain drain is underway. Young New Zealanders are heading overseas, as the number of people in their 20s fell in March for the eighth consecutive quarter.
- The level of new arrivals is not sufficient to offset departures, with net migration negative for a sixth consecutive quarter, which is dragging down population growth.
- The working age population is falling due to strong migration outflows, with the number of 15- to 64-year-olds shrinking 0.1% over the last year. The young work force is shrinking faster, as the number of 20- to 39-year-olds fell 0.7% over the last year.
- We expect weak net migration to persist throughout 2022 and 2023 as many Kiwis are drawn overseas by a combination of pent-up demand to travel, a lower cost of living, and higher average wages.
- We also expect immigration numbers of foreign citizens to New Zealand to remain low. Immigration NZ cut resources when COVID-19 struck due to limited migration activity, and it may take some time to get back to a pre-pandemic processing capacity.
Latest updates
Premium
National population estimates
Slight pick-up in population growth
Tue 18 Aug 2026
Quarterly
5,357,300 Total NZ population estimate as at June 2026
0.7%pa Population growth in June 2026 quarter
17,600 Net migration gain over the year to June 2026Premium
National population estimates
Population growth lifted by increasing migration
Mon 18 May 2026
Quarterly
5,361,300 Total NZ population estimate as at March 20260.8%pa Population growth in March 2026 quarter24,200 Net migration over the year to March 2026National population estimates
Population growth steady at 0.6%pa
Tue 17 Feb 2026
Quarterly
5,342,000 Total NZ population estimate as at December 20250.6%pa Population growth in December 2025 quarter14,200 Net migration over the year to December 2025National population estimates
Population growth steady at 0.6%pa
Mon 17 Nov 2025
Quarterly
5,334,200 Total NZ population estimate as of September 2025
Population grows 0.6%pa in September 2025 quarterNet migration edges up to 12,500 for year ending September 2025