Our take on the latest National population estimates (Tue 16 Nov 2021)
Total NZ population estimate
5,126,300
As at September 2021
Population growth slows to 0.5%pa
Annual net migration only 800
The key numbers...
- New Zealand’s estimated resident population is currently sitting at 5,126,300 as of September 2021, up 0.5%pa from a year prior.
- Natural increase remains the key driver of almost all population growth, accounting for an increase in the population of 26,800 over the past year, compared to only 800 from migration.
- The population of those aged above 65 grew by 3.2%pa in September 2021, compared to 0.0% for the working age population.
Population growth by age
Annual % changes
...and our reaction
- The effects of the closed borders are becoming more apparent, especially with recent revisions to migration figures, bringing annual net migration to its lowest level since 2012.
- Population growth is providing no relief for the labour market. With the unemployment rate currently at a record-equalling low, firms are struggling to find labour are and unable to look internationally for more workers.
- The recently announced 2021 Resident Visa is expected to keep migrant departure numbers incredibly low over the next 2-3 years.
- However, any pick-up in population growth during 2022 is reliant on changes to MIQ or border restrictions, which could allow more expatriate Kiwis to return or enable foreign workers to start coming to New Zealand again.
Latest updates
Premium
National population estimates
Population growth lifted by increasing migration
Mon 18 May 2026
Quarterly
5,361,300 Total NZ population estimate as at March 2026
0.8%pa Population growth in March 2026 quarter24,200 Net migration over the year to March 2026Premium
National population estimates
Population growth steady at 0.6%pa
Tue 17 Feb 2026
Quarterly
5,342,000 Total NZ population estimate as at December 2025
0.6%pa Population growth in December 2025 quarter
14,200 Net migration over the year to December 2025National population estimates
Population growth steady at 0.6%pa
Mon 17 Nov 2025
Quarterly
5,334,200 Total NZ population estimate as of September 2025
Population grows 0.6%pa in September 2025 quarterNet migration edges up to 12,500 for year ending September 2025National population estimates
Population growth now just 0.7%pa
Tue 19 Aug 2025
Quarterly
5,324,700 Total NZ population estimate as at June 2025
Population grows 0.7%pa in June 2025 quarter
Net migration eases to 13,700 for year ending June 2025