Commercial registrations and activity
Lockdown a hinderance, not a deathblow
10 Sept 2021
Our take on the latest Commercial registrations and activity (Fri 10 Sept 2021)
New light commercials down 40%pa in August 2021
New medium commercials down 39%pa
New very heavy commercials up 21%pa
The key numbers...
- Lockdown 2.0 has slashed commercial registrations with total new commercial registrations down by 39%pa, or 52% (seasonally adjusted) from July.
- New light commercial registrations suffered the most, down 59% (sa) from July, followed by new medium commercials, down 44% (sa), and then new very heavy commercials, down 32% (as).
- Total road user charges (RUC) (kms) fell 12%pa in August and were 18% lower than August 2019, which is a modest drop considering the circumstances.
- There has been a significant catch-up of new commercial imports in recent months, particularly in June and July. New commercial vehicle registrations are over twice as high in the year so far compared with 2020.
Total new commercial registrations
Annual running total, Source:NZTA
...and our reaction
- Lockdown is a massive hinderance for sales, especially considering how well they had been doing in the last few months.
- Despite the restrictions of lockdown, underlying demand for commercial vehicles should be resilient to the Delta outbreak, as long as the elimination strategy pays off within a reasonable timeframe. The pipeline of construction work has continued to build up and, despite having possibly peaked in July, commodity prices are still elevated.
- Unlike the first lockdown, we do not expect commercial registrations to be weaker for a prolonged period after this lockdown, with business confidence and investment intentions likely to be more resilient this time around.
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