Our take on the latest National population estimates (Thu 18 Feb 2021)
Total NZ population estimate
5,112,300
As at December 2020
Population growth slows to 1.4%pa
Net migration estimated at 634 per month since borders closed in April
The key numbers...
- New Zealand’s estimated resident population grew 71,400 over the last year, bringing the kiwi population up to 5,112,300.
- Population growth continues to slow, with the latest quarter showing annual growth down to 1.4%pa – the weakest growth rate since 2013 (before the migration boom).
- With incredibly limited migration, growth in the working age population is notably weak, at 1.1%pa, again the slowest growth since 2013.
- The number of people aged above 65 is still showing solid growth, up 3.9%pa in the December quarter.
Older population is booming
Annual % changes
...and our reaction
- Population growth has stalled as net migration has weakened due to the closed New Zealand borders.
- In recent months, many firms have struggled to find skilled labour, exacerbated only by the slowing growth in the working age population due to the lack of migration.
- Population growth is likely to stay muted for the next few years, and we don’t expect migration to pick up significantly until 2023.
- Population growth for those aged 65 and above is likely to remain strong, however, as this growth is largely driven by the aging of the baby-boomer generation, rather than migration (as is the case for the working age population).
Latest updates
Premium
National population estimates
Slight pick-up in population growth
Tue 18 Aug 2026
Quarterly
5,357,300 Total NZ population estimate as at June 2026
0.7%pa Population growth in June 2026 quarter
17,600 Net migration gain over the year to June 2026Premium
National population estimates
Population growth lifted by increasing migration
Mon 18 May 2026
Quarterly
5,361,300 Total NZ population estimate as at March 20260.8%pa Population growth in March 2026 quarter24,200 Net migration over the year to March 2026National population estimates
Population growth steady at 0.6%pa
Tue 17 Feb 2026
Quarterly
5,342,000 Total NZ population estimate as at December 2025
0.6%pa Population growth in December 2025 quarter14,200 Net migration over the year to December 2025National population estimates
Population growth steady at 0.6%pa
Mon 17 Nov 2025
Quarterly
5,334,200 Total NZ population estimate as of September 2025
Population grows 0.6%pa in September 2025 quarterNet migration edges up to 12,500 for year ending September 2025