Our take on the latest National population estimates (Thu 18 Feb 2021)
Total NZ population estimate
5,112,300
As at December 2020
Population growth slows to 1.4%pa
Net migration estimated at 634 per month since borders closed in April
The key numbers...
- New Zealand’s estimated resident population grew 71,400 over the last year, bringing the kiwi population up to 5,112,300.
- Population growth continues to slow, with the latest quarter showing annual growth down to 1.4%pa – the weakest growth rate since 2013 (before the migration boom).
- With incredibly limited migration, growth in the working age population is notably weak, at 1.1%pa, again the slowest growth since 2013.
- The number of people aged above 65 is still showing solid growth, up 3.9%pa in the December quarter.
Older population is booming
Annual % changes

...and our reaction
- Population growth has stalled as net migration has weakened due to the closed New Zealand borders.
- In recent months, many firms have struggled to find skilled labour, exacerbated only by the slowing growth in the working age population due to the lack of migration.
- Population growth is likely to stay muted for the next few years, and we don’t expect migration to pick up significantly until 2023.
- Population growth for those aged 65 and above is likely to remain strong, however, as this growth is largely driven by the aging of the baby-boomer generation, rather than migration (as is the case for the working age population).
Latest updates
Premium

National population estimates
Slight pick-up in population growth
Tue 18 Aug 2026
Quarterly
Premium

National population estimates
Population growth lifted by increasing migration
Mon 18 May 2026
Quarterly

National population estimates
Population growth steady at 0.6%pa
Tue 17 Feb 2026
Quarterly

National population estimates
Population growth steady at 0.6%pa
Mon 17 Nov 2025
Quarterly
5,334,200 Total NZ population estimate as of September 2025
