Our take on the latest National population estimates (Tue 17 Nov 2020)
Total NZ population estimate
5,101,400
As at September 2020
Population growth slows to 1.9%pa
Migration limiting population growth
The key numbers...
- New Zealand’s estimated resident population was 5,101,400 as at September 2020, sitting 94,200 higher than a year prior.
- Population growth continues to slow, easing from 2.3%pa in the June quarter to 1.9%pa in September.
- Population growth for those aged below 65 is particularly weak, at just 1.4%pa and continuing to slow. In contrast, population growth for those aged above 65 was 4.3%pa and continues to trend upwards.
- Stats NZ estimates that net migration in the September quarter was just 1,600, down massively from the net inflow of 22,000 people in the September 2019 quarter.
Population change
Year-end-contributors to population change
...and our reaction
- With border restrictions still in place, net migration is no longer the strong driving force behind population growth.
- Without these new migrants coming into the country, growth in the working age population has all but come to a standstill. Therefore, migration and population growth are unlikely to be the answer to firms’ skills shortages in the near term.
- We expect population growth to continue to weaken over the next 1-2 years as we wait for a vaccine to allow New Zealand to open its borders once again.
Latest updates
Premium
National population estimates
Slight pick-up in population growth
Tue 18 Aug 2026
Quarterly
5,357,300 Total NZ population estimate as at June 2026
0.7%pa Population growth in June 2026 quarter
17,600 Net migration gain over the year to June 2026Premium
National population estimates
Population growth lifted by increasing migration
Mon 18 May 2026
Quarterly
5,361,300 Total NZ population estimate as at March 20260.8%pa Population growth in March 2026 quarter24,200 Net migration over the year to March 2026National population estimates
Population growth steady at 0.6%pa
Tue 17 Feb 2026
Quarterly
5,342,000 Total NZ population estimate as at December 2025
0.6%pa Population growth in December 2025 quarter14,200 Net migration over the year to December 2025National population estimates
Population growth steady at 0.6%pa
Mon 17 Nov 2025
Quarterly
5,334,200 Total NZ population estimate as of September 2025
Population grows 0.6%pa in September 2025 quarterNet migration edges up to 12,500 for year ending September 2025