National population estimates

Population growth continues to slow

17 Nov 2020

Our take on the latest National population estimates (Tue 17 Nov 2020)

Total NZ population estimate
5,101,400
As at September 2020
Population growth slows to 1.9%pa
Migration limiting population growth

The key numbers...

  • New Zealand’s estimated resident population was 5,101,400 as at September 2020, sitting 94,200 higher than a year prior.
  • Population growth continues to slow, easing from 2.3%pa in the June quarter to 1.9%pa in September.
  • Population growth for those aged below 65 is particularly weak, at just 1.4%pa and continuing to slow. In contrast, population growth for those aged above 65 was 4.3%pa and continues to trend upwards.
  • Stats NZ estimates that net migration in the September quarter was just 1,600, down massively from the net inflow of 22,000 people in the September 2019 quarter.

Population change

Year-end-contributors to population change
3778

...and our reaction

  • With border restrictions still in place, net migration is no longer the strong driving force behind population growth. 
  • Without these new migrants coming into the country, growth in the working age population has all but come to a standstill. Therefore, migration and population growth are unlikely to be the answer to firms’ skills shortages in the near term.
  • We expect population growth to continue to weaken over the next 1-2 years as we wait for a vaccine to allow New Zealand to open its borders once again.