Our take on the latest National population estimates (Mon 17 Aug 2020)
Total NZ population estimate
5,024,970
As at June 2020
Population growth slows to 2.1%pa
Border restrictions limiting migration
The key numbers...
- The estimated resident population grew 2.1%pa in the June quarter, settling in comfortably above 5 million, with 5,024,970 residents currently living in New Zealand.
- Population growth slowed from the March quarter (when it had jumped to 2.3%pa), driven by significantly reduced migration flows in the June quarter. In June, net migration is estimated to have contributed only 800 residents to the total population, compared to an estimated 33,300 in March.
- Weaker net migration affected the population structure, as population growth for those aged below 65 softened (down from 2.0% in March to 1.8%pa), while growth in the number of residents aged 65 years and older continued to accelerate (up 4.1%pa from 4.0% in March).
Population change
Year-end contributors to population change
...and our reaction
- Migration remains the most significant contributor to population change in New Zealand on an annual basis. However, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to cloud the picture of what is really happening to net migration.
- We saw many Kiwis flock home in the first quarter of the year as the global pandemic began to take hold , but it appears that the border restrictions and the capacity of both airlines and managed isolation centres are now resulting in fewer New Zealanders coming home than might have been thought.
- The possibility for population growth over the past year to be revised down remains significant as foreign arrivals, particularly late last year, are incredibly inflated due to COVID-19. If many of these arrivals decide to leave the country within 12 months of their arrival (as would have been expected for a larger proportion in usual times), population estimates, particularly for the December and March quarters, will be revised down significantly.
- The divergence in population growth for those age groups above and below 65 is due to weak migration. A significant amount of the growth in the population aged below 65 is driven by migrant arrivals, while the number of New Zealanders aged above 65 is mostly driven by the aging of the Baby Boomer cohort.
Latest updates
Premium
National population estimates
Population growth lifted by increasing migration
Mon 18 May 2026
Quarterly
5,361,300 Total NZ population estimate as at March 2026
0.8%pa Population growth in March 2026 quarter24,200 Net migration over the year to March 2026Premium
National population estimates
Population growth steady at 0.6%pa
Tue 17 Feb 2026
Quarterly
5,342,000 Total NZ population estimate as at December 2025
0.6%pa Population growth in December 2025 quarter
14,200 Net migration over the year to December 2025National population estimates
Population growth steady at 0.6%pa
Mon 17 Nov 2025
Quarterly
5,334,200 Total NZ population estimate as of September 2025
Population grows 0.6%pa in September 2025 quarterNet migration edges up to 12,500 for year ending September 2025National population estimates
Population growth now just 0.7%pa
Tue 19 Aug 2025
Quarterly
5,324,700 Total NZ population estimate as at June 2025
Population grows 0.7%pa in June 2025 quarter
Net migration eases to 13,700 for year ending June 2025