Our take on the latest National population estimates (Mon 18 May 2020)
Total NZ population estimate
5,002,100
As at March 2020
Population growth up to 2.0%pa
COVID-19 distorting migration numbers
The key numbers...
- According to StatsNZ, New Zealand’s estimated resident population is over 5 million for the first time, growing 2.0%pa in the year to March 2020, up from 1.8%pa in December 2019.
- Net migration in the March 2020 quarter was 29,300 (up 79%pa), the strongest quarterly migration we have on record since 1991, as COVID-19 distorts the numbers.
- The number of New Zealand citizen arrivals increased 165%pa in March 2020 as many Kiwis came home unexpectedly.
- The number of estimated migrant departures was 12%pa lower in the March 2020 quarter compared to March 2019.
- Annual net migration in 2019 has been revised up by nearly 15,000 to roughly 58,500.
Population change
Year-end contributors to population change
...and our reaction
- COVID-19 has persuaded many New Zealanders that were abroad to come home and stopped others from leaving, boosting quarterly net migration to the highest level on record.
- We are sceptical about StatsNZ’s provisional migration estimates at the best of times, but COVID-19 makes the estimates even more uncertain.
- Customs data shows that total arrivals (including visitors) have averaged about 1,500 per week since the start of April, with Stats NZ estimates to date suggesting that just under half of these people are returning NZ residents.
- Provisional departure numbers have been significantly higher, averaging 6,160 per week since the start of April, although we have no indication at this stage of the mix of tourists and longer-term residents returning to overseas homes.
- We suspect the outflow of non-New Zealand citizens moving home means that actual migration will end up being significantly lower than StatsNZ’s current estimates.
Latest updates
Premium
National population estimates
Slight pick-up in population growth
Tue 18 Aug 2026
Quarterly
5,357,300 Total NZ population estimate as at June 2026
0.7%pa Population growth in June 2026 quarter17,600 Net migration gain over the year to June 2026Premium
National population estimates
Population growth lifted by increasing migration
Mon 18 May 2026
Quarterly
5,361,300 Total NZ population estimate as at March 20260.8%pa Population growth in March 2026 quarter24,200 Net migration over the year to March 2026National population estimates
Population growth steady at 0.6%pa
Tue 17 Feb 2026
Quarterly
5,342,000 Total NZ population estimate as at December 2025
0.6%pa Population growth in December 2025 quarter14,200 Net migration over the year to December 2025National population estimates
Population growth steady at 0.6%pa
Mon 17 Nov 2025
Quarterly
5,334,200 Total NZ population estimate as of September 2025
Population grows 0.6%pa in September 2025 quarterNet migration edges up to 12,500 for year ending September 2025