Our take on the latest National population estimates (Thu 14 Nov 2019)
Total NZ population estimate
4,942,500
As at September 2019
Population growth steady at 1.7%pa
Working age population growth 1.4%pa
The key numbers...
- Population growth has been subdued but steady since late 2018, growing by 1.7%pa in the September 2019 quarter, down from a recent peak of 2.0%pa in 2016.
- The population aged 65 years and older grew 3.4%pa in the September quarter. The working age population (15-64 years) grew 1.4%pa, and the population aged 15 years or younger grew 1.1%pa.
- Net migration in the year to September 2019 was provisionally estimated at 54,600. Net migration contributed two-thirds (68%) of the growth in the population between the September 2018 and September 2019.
- Over the last quarter, migrant departures from New Zealand provisionally rose 5.2%pa, while migrant arrivals were flat, growing just 0.6%pa.
Population change
Year-end contributors to population change
...and our reaction
- Population growth looks to have settled at around 1.7%pa for the time being.
- Migration is still the biggest contributor to population change. We expect net migration will ease going into 2020 as weakness in the labour market causes work visa arrivals to fall away, and changes to work visa rules for lower skilled jobs under the previous government sees more work visa holders departing as their visa expires.
- An anticipated recovery in the Australian economy from next year will also prompt a further uptick in the number of Kiwis crossing the ditch.
- Slower population growth than in recent times, driven by falling net migration, will constrain economic growth expectations over the coming year.
Latest updates
Premium
National population estimates
Slight pick-up in population growth
Tue 18 Aug 2026
Quarterly
5,357,300 Total NZ population estimate as at June 2026
0.7%pa Population growth in June 2026 quarter
17,600 Net migration gain over the year to June 2026Premium
National population estimates
Population growth lifted by increasing migration
Mon 18 May 2026
Quarterly
5,361,300 Total NZ population estimate as at March 20260.8%pa Population growth in March 2026 quarter24,200 Net migration over the year to March 2026National population estimates
Population growth steady at 0.6%pa
Tue 17 Feb 2026
Quarterly
5,342,000 Total NZ population estimate as at December 20250.6%pa Population growth in December 2025 quarter14,200 Net migration over the year to December 2025National population estimates
Population growth steady at 0.6%pa
Mon 17 Nov 2025
Quarterly
5,334,200 Total NZ population estimate as of September 2025
Population grows 0.6%pa in September 2025 quarterNet migration edges up to 12,500 for year ending September 2025