Our take on the latest Commercial registrations and activity (Mon 11 Nov 2019)
New medium commercials up 17%pa
New light commercials down 12.6%pa
New very heavy commercials down 5.5%pa
The key numbers...
- New medium commercial vehicle registrations rose 17%pa in October 2019, a strong result following a couple of relatively weak results over the last few months, with the annual total now just a whisker below 2017’s record high.
- New light commercial vehicle registrations fell 12.6%pa in October 2019, the fourth consecutive monthly fall and the biggest fall so far this year.
- New very heavy vehicle registrations fell 5.5%pa in October 2019 and have now fallen in six out of the past 10 months.
New commercial registrations
Rolling annual totals
...and our reaction
- The growth in new medium commercials is at odds with slowing growth in both the domestic and global economies, although high commodity prices and continued strength in residential construction might be giving freight and construction companies the confidence to invest in new vehicles.
- We expect medium commercials to start declining next year as residential construction peters out and domestic economic growth slows further.
- Both new light commercial registrations and new very heavy commercial registrations remain volatile month-to-month but the annual totals, although high, are clearly past their recent peak.
- Construction activity, population growth, farmers confidence and the strength of the global economy will all play a part in determining the trajectory of new light and very heavy commercials in the coming years, with the current outlook pointing broadly downward.
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