Our take on the latest National population estimates (Thu 15 Aug 2019)
Total NZ population estimate
4,917,000
As of June 2019
Population growth holds at 1.6%pa
Working age population growth 1.3%pa
The key numbers...
- Population growth held steady at 1.6%pa for the June 2019 quarter. This growth rate has prevailed since the start of 2018, but is slower than the 2.0%pa peak back in 2016.
- The total population continues aging as the population aged 65 years and older grew at 3.4%pa, up from 3.3%pa last quarter. Meanwhile, the working age population (15-64 years) grew at 1.3%pa, down from 1.4%pa last quarter, and the under 15 year-old population grew at 0.9%pa.
- Net migration in the year to June was 49,400 and has held around the 50,000 level since the start of 2018.
- Migrant departures from New Zealand climbed 11%pa in the June quarter, up from 4.3% last quarter, while migrant arrivals were only up 2.5%pa.
Population change
Year-end contributors to population change
...and our reaction
- Recent changes to how StatsNZ estimates the most up-to-date migration data has led to several downward revisions for net migration, with annual net migration in April (our last release) being revised down by 5,312 migrants.
- Looking at quarterly, rather than monthly, data should reduce the volatility in migration estimates and a population news release should give a broader overview.
- Migration is still the biggest contributor to population change, though we expect it to ease throughout the rest of 2019. The gradual slowing of the natural increase in the population since 2010 will also contribute to weaker population growth.
Latest updates
Premium
National population estimates
Slight pick-up in population growth
Tue 18 Aug 2026
Quarterly
5,357,300 Total NZ population estimate as at June 2026
0.7%pa Population growth in June 2026 quarter
17,600 Net migration gain over the year to June 2026Premium
National population estimates
Population growth lifted by increasing migration
Mon 18 May 2026
Quarterly
5,361,300 Total NZ population estimate as at March 20260.8%pa Population growth in March 2026 quarter24,200 Net migration over the year to March 2026National population estimates
Population growth steady at 0.6%pa
Tue 17 Feb 2026
Quarterly
5,342,000 Total NZ population estimate as at December 20250.6%pa Population growth in December 2025 quarter14,200 Net migration over the year to December 2025National population estimates
Population growth steady at 0.6%pa
Mon 17 Nov 2025
Quarterly
5,334,200 Total NZ population estimate as of September 2025
Population grows 0.6%pa in September 2025 quarterNet migration edges up to 12,500 for year ending September 2025