Our take on the latest National population estimates (Tue 14 May 2019)
Annual net migration estimated to be
56,136
Asat
March 2019
Migrant departures revised up by 4,900 since last month
Net migration up 6,700 from its estimated low point in June 2018
The key numbers...
- Not a lot. March’s migration estimates are not as unbelievably strong as the ones published in January and February, but still show net migration on an upward trajectory.
- However, even for the March 2018 month, when 99.3% of total passenger movements are known, the unknown pool of 8,448 people is still huge compared to estimated net migration of 3,396 people for the month.
- In our view, policy and planning decisions are best made on the latest finalised figure – currently November 2017, when annual net migration was 53,834 and declining by 700-1,500 people per month.
- Government policy settings suggest net migration should still be declining, although Australia’s housing market downturn and economic slowdown might have seen the drop-off in net migration moderating over the last year.
Net migration
Annual running totals
...and our reaction
- StatsNZ revised down its migration estimates in its latest release to a net inflow of 56,136 people for the year to March, significantly below its previous estimate for the year to February of 61,577 people.
- The latest estimate for annual net migration is the lowest since figures for December 2018 were published, reversing about 40% of the upward revisions published for January and February 2019.
- Migrant departure numbers in the year to February 2019 are estimated to be 5.3% higher than was thought last month, while arrival numbers are about 1.0% lower.
- Most of the increase in migrant departures over the last year has been due to a lift in the number of New Zealand citizens leaving.
- StatsNZ data shows that 21% of total passenger movements remain unknown for the last 12 months and have had to be modelled – and 48% of all movements for the last four months are unknown and therefore modelled. Because permanent migration is a relatively small proportion of total passenger movements, these “unknowns” are huge in the context of trying to estimate net migration.
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