Our take on the latest National population estimates (Fri 12 Apr 2019)
Annual net migration
61,575
As of February 2019
Migrant arrivals up 11,563 from a year ago
Net migration is now tracking upwards, going against all logic
The key numbers...
- February’s migration estimates are more consistent with those released in January, but we remain deeply sceptical of the apparent radical swing in migration, which is now rising at pace.
- The sharp upswing in net migration estimates goes against all other indicators: government restrictions on migrant entry have been tightened further, and visa approvals are weaker.
- Since new migration estimates have been published, the outlook for net migration has swung from a plunge in November’s data, to a stable outlook in December’s data, to accelerating upwards in January and February.
- With such wild swings in the net migration estimates, and the large number of unknown and unclassified movements, we’re still not confident the figures are a fair reflection of migration.
Net migration
Annual running totals
...and our reaction
- Migration estimates from StatsNZ show net migration has roared back to life, with over 61,000 additional people moving to New Zealand in the last year.
- The sharp increase in net migration has been driven by a strong rise in migrant arrivals, up 8.2%pa over the last year, coinciding with slower growth in migrant departures, which increased only 1.8%pa over the same period.
- StatsNZ data shows that 19% of total passenger movements remain unknown for the last 12 months and have had to be modelled – and more than half of all movements for the last three months are unknown and therefore modelled. Because permanent migration is a relatively small proportion of all passenger movements, these “unknowns” are huge in the context of trying to estimate net migration.
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