Our take on the latest National population estimates (Fri 15 Mar 2019)
Annual net migration
58,391
As at January 2019 (apparently)
Long-term arrivals up 6.3% over the last year
Hard to place any confidence in the numbers given their volatility
The key numbers...
- The volatility of migration estimates means it is very difficult to place much faith in the latest numbers – all data from October 2017 onwards is provisional. The most recent finalised number from Statistics NZ is for September 2017, when net migration was at 55,762pa.
- As an example of the volatility, Statistics NZ’s initial estimate of departures for the year to November 2018 was 100,600 ± 1,200. Its latest estimate for the November 2018 year sits at 93,000, well outside the 95% confidence interval.
- Policy changes by both the National and Labour governments suggest net migration should be coming under downward pressure. The effects of rule changes for foreign students wanting to remain in New Zealand after studying, the regionalisation of the skills shortage list, and a lower target for residence approval numbers should drag net migration lower during 2019 and 2020.
- Businesses are increasingly concerned about their ability to obtain workers given the tight labour market and tougher migration policy.
Net migration
Annual running totals
...and our reaction
- Statistics NZ’s latest migration estimates show net migration has apparently risen from a trough of 50,100 in the year to June 2018 to 58,400 in the year to January 2019.
- A surge in arrivals is behind the increase, primarily driven by a big lift in people entering the country on visitor visas and being likely to stay for over 12 months. In the three months to January 2019, estimated long-term arrivals on visitor visas were up 52% from a year earlier.
- Departure numbers are also rising, albeit not as rapidly. The net outflow of New Zealand citizens over the last year was 7,700 people, the largest since November 2014.
Latest updates
Premium
National population estimates
Population growth lifted by increasing migration
Mon 18 May 2026
Quarterly
5,361,300 Total NZ population estimate as at March 20260.8%pa Population growth in March 2026 quarter24,200 Net migration over the year to March 2026Premium
National population estimates
Population growth steady at 0.6%pa
Tue 17 Feb 2026
Quarterly
5,342,000 Total NZ population estimate as at December 2025
0.6%pa Population growth in December 2025 quarter
14,200 Net migration over the year to December 2025National population estimates
Population growth steady at 0.6%pa
Mon 17 Nov 2025
Quarterly
5,334,200 Total NZ population estimate as of September 2025
Population grows 0.6%pa in September 2025 quarterNet migration edges up to 12,500 for year ending September 2025National population estimates
Population growth now just 0.7%pa
Tue 19 Aug 2025
Quarterly
5,324,700 Total NZ population estimate as at June 2025
Population grows 0.7%pa in June 2025 quarter
Net migration eases to 13,700 for year ending June 2025