Our take on the latest National population estimates (Fri 15 Feb 2019)
Estimated migration has been revised from last month
Annual net migration seems to be plateauing just below 50,000
Annual net migration down 4,400 from Dec 2017
The key numbers...
- New migration figures from StatsNZ are provisional for 17 months, meaning each month can present a very different picture of migration.
- December’s estimates point towards a slower downwards path for migration, in contrast to November’s accelerating downwards track.
- With the new estimates bouncing around to a far greater extent than we’d expected, the figures make it increasingly difficult to get a clean read on where migration is heading over the short-term.
- The latest estimates suggest New Zealand’s population might be overstated by around 45,000 people.
Estimated net migration
Annual totals
...and our reaction
- The latest estimated migration figures from StatsNZ show a significantly different picture from the November estimates, with annual net migration now estimated to be around 48,300 for the year to December 2018.
- The December estimates show annual net migration appearing to plateau just below 50,000 people per year, but this is different to the much faster downwards trend seen in the November 2018 figures, when net migration was estimated at 43,400.
- More New Zealand citizens are departing the country, with departures up 6.9%pa over the year to December 2018. Over the same period, arrivals of NZ citizens fell 1.4%pa.
Latest updates
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