New measure for peak visitors

MBIE recently introduced a new series for measuring peak visitor numbers in each region – including peak daytime and peak nighttime visitors. In this article, we dive into the new peak visitor series to see what it can reveal about tourism in your region.

Peak population is a key concept for understanding visitor numbers, when they peak, and their demand for local services. MBIE previously provided a peak population series – monthly unique regional population estimates (MURPE) – for a period in 2022. Recently, MBIE launched tourism volumes and flows (TVF) which sounds different, but is essentially a new and improved MURPE, using anonymised cell phone data combined with population and tourism statistics. TVF includes estimates of the peak number of people in each territorial authority, for daytime (10am to 9pm) and nighttime (11pm to 6am) over a weekly, monthly or quarterly period.

The TVF series has significant limitations to bear in mind. Some areas have no coverage, for example, there is no visitor night data for Wellington or Christchurch at all, due to localised data quality concerns. The data can be tricky conceptually to work with too. For example, peak numbers for two weeks can’t be added together to get a fortnightly total, because some visitors would be present in both weeks, and could therefore be double counted. We’re not rushing to add the TVF series to our online products as we wait for some wrinkles in the data to be ironed out, but they are still a useful addition to the toolkit of regional tourism indicators.

Unlike tourism expenditure or guest nights, visitors are counted in TVF when they pass through an area, even if they don’t stop. As a result, visitor numbers for areas with busy through traffic can appear inflated. Chart 1 shows the ratio of visitor days per visitor night by territorial authority. Areas with the highest ratio – meaning they have a lot more daytime visitors than nighttime visitors – are generally on main state highways, and have a lot of through traffic that doesn’t stay the night.

Areas with the lowest ratio of visitor days to visitor nights are either more isolated or more developed destinations. With 1.1 visitor days per visitor night, Auckland isn’t remote, but as an established destination for a range of purposes, the majority of people visiting the region stay the night. Gisborne has a low ratio too – with 1.2 visitor days per visitor night – but for a different reason. Gisborne is relatively remote, several hours drive from the nearest main centres, so most visitors will stay the night there.

The TVF data includes visitor counts on a weekly basis, to understand the magnitude and timing of visitor seasonality in each area. Chart 2 shows that Thames-Coromandel has the ‘peakiest’ visitor numbers, with 549,000 unique visitors in their busiest week (78,000 visitors per day on average), 13 times more visitors than their quietest week. Like most areas, Thames-Coromandel’s visitor peak occurs in the week surrounding New Years Eve, which lands in January. In the days surrounding New Years Eve, people often spend time at holiday homes, attend New Year’s concerts, or otherwise enjoy vacation time. Many areas have a peak in December, surrounding Christmas day, which could reflect travelling to spend time with friends and family.

Some areas have peaks at different times, driven by major local events. Visitor numbers peak in November in Stratford (Stratford A&P show), June in Waipa (Fieldays), February in South Wairarapa (Martinborough Fair) and Gore in February (Southern Fieldays).

As TVF includes peak nighttime population, it provides a more fulsome estimate of overnight visitors than other tourism series, such as the accommodation data programme (ADP) which only counts people staying at commercial accommodation providers (if the provider responds to their survey). In theory, TVF peak nighttime population will also count people staying with friends or family, in peer-to-peer accommodation (such as Airbnb), or freedom camping. Chart 3 shows that for Buller District, the majority of guest nights are hosted at commercial accommodation. In March 2026, there were 37,700 commercial guest nights in Buller, and 61,100 visitor nights, implying 54% of visitor nights were hosted at commercial accommodation.

Visitor nights may capture a wider audience than is traditionally thought of as tourists. A visitor staying in a motel for one-night counts as one visitor night. A family member spending a week with their family in their spare room counts as seven visitor nights.

MBIE also recently re-introduced the monthly regional tourism expenditure (MRTE) series for measuring tourism expenditure. However, we have concerns about the robustness of this series, and are waiting for further improvement before we include it in our Quarterly Economic Monitor and Regional Economic Profile.

If you’d like to understand peak visitor numbers in your area, or discuss the re-introduced tourism expenditure series, please get in touch.