New Zealand’s economic recovery is building momentum, with higher activity in all but one region in the December 2025 quarter, according to Infometrics’ latest monitoring of regional economies. Provisional estimates from the Infometrics December 2025 Quarterly Economic Monitor suggests that economic activity rose 1.6%pa in the December 2025 quarter, and up 0.4%pa over the 2025 calendar year.
“The December 2025 quarter showed meaningful economic recovery across regions, including in the North Island which previously lagged in its economic recovery” said Infometrics Principal Economist Nick Brunsdon. “Bay of Plenty and Waikato regions are now growing faster than the national average, and like the South Island regions, are buoyed by better primary sector returns. Auckland continues to lag, with activity up 1.3%pa in the December quarter, but it’s not too far behind the national average of 1.6%pa.”
“The primary sector remains a bright spot, driving economic recovery for regional New Zealand,” said Mr Brunsdon. “The dairy pay-out has recently improved and is tracking just below last year’s record high, and milk solid production has increased 2.6%pa. Prices are strong across the primary sector, with the value of New Zealand’s beef exports rising 21%pa over the 2025 calendar year, and horticulture exports lifting 28%pa.”
The December 2025 quarter saw increases in manufacturing sentiment, concrete volumes and construction intentions, tourism arrivals, job ads, and more, but retail spending trends were mixed, inflationary pressures ramped up, and hours worked pulled back a touch.
“With the job market remains challenging, households continue to scrimp with their money. Infometrics estimates that consumer spending volumes fell 1.7%pa fell over the 2025 calendar year,” said Mr Brunsdon. “The housing market has started to pick up, with a 11% increase in sales over the year to December 2025, but it remains a buyers’ market, with prices falling 0.9%pa in the December 2025 quarter according to Infometrics analysis of Cotality data.
Employment gains remain more muted than economic activity, with only three South Island regions experiencing employment growth this quarter. Employment in Canterbury and Southland rose 0.6%pa, and 0.5%pa in Otago. Metro areas, particularly in the north, continue to face employment declines, with Auckland employment down 0.9%pa and Wellington employment down 1.5%pa. “Job momentum is still taking some time to turn around, and the unemployment rate has increased further too. We expect employment will be one of the last indicators to recover.”
ENDS
Attachment – map showing employment growth by region
Note:
The Infometrics Quarterly Economic Monitor is a series of reports about local economies, rather than one comprehensive report. This media release provides a high-level overview of trends and changes to regional economies.
More details about the Quarterly Economic Monitor can be found here: https://www.infometrics.co.nz/product/quarterly-economic-monitor
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