Our take on the latest Employment indicators (Tue 28 Oct 2025)
Filled jobs up 0.3% in September (sa)
Service industry jobs up 0.4% in September (sa)
Goods-producing industry jobs up 0.1% in September (sa)
The key numbers...
- Filled job numbers rose 0.3% in September from August, increasing for the second consecutive month. The three-month stretch of rising filled job ads noted in the previous release has been broken by a revision which now shows a small decline of -0.1% in July (all figures seasonally adjusted).
- Service industry filled jobs rose 0.4% in September from August, increasing for the fourth consecutive month. Service industry filled jobs in September were higher than a year ago for the first time since June 2024, up 0.1%.
- The number of goods-producing industries filled jobs rose 0.1% in September from August, marking the second consecutive month-on-month increase for the first time since July 2023 (all figures seasonally adjusted).
- Primary industries filled jobs fell 0.5% in September from August, falling for the first time since May. Filled jobs in primary industries had risen strongly over the previous three months, so this pull-back still leaves jobs in the sector up 0.4% from a year ago (all figures seasonally adjusted).
- At an industry level, nine of the 19 industries recorded growth in filled jobs compared to a year ago. The largest increases were in mining (7.4%), education (+2.0%), and public administration (+1.7%). The largest declines were in information media (-5.8%), construction (-4.5%), and administration (-2.6%).
Revisions break streak but jobs rising nonetheless
Filled jobs, monthly % change, seasonally adjusted
...and our reaction
- Revisions to previous results are a given for the monthly employment indicators series, and revisions to filled jobs in July broke the chance for a four-month stretch of monthly gains in filled jobs. Nonetheless, filled jobs still rose in September, which is positive for the labour market recovery heading into the final quarter of 2025.
- Job ad numbers released earlier this month rose for the third consecutive month (based on Infometrics seasonal adjustment of MBIE data). Job ad numbers had been flat for previous 12 months, so date since June signals the start of an upturn from a low point.
- The more comprehensive labour market statistics release next week should see the unemployment rate rise narrowly once again, for what might be the final time in this cycle. Following the unemployment rate’s peak in the September quarter, we expect the labour market to recover and pull the unemployment rate back below 5.0% by the second half of 2026.
Latest updates
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Filled jobs unchanged in October (sa)Primary industries jobs up 0.5% in October (sa)Service industry jobs unchanged from a year ago