Our take on the latest Real estate statistics (Thu 14 Aug 2025)
House prices down 0.5% from June (sa)
House sales down 1.7% from June (sa)
Stock of properties for sale down 0.4% from June (sa)
The key numbers...
- House prices fell 0.5% in July from June (seasonally adjusted) but were higher than a year ago for the third consecutive month (+0.1%). House prices have recorded annual increases over the past three months due to sizable month-on-month declines (0.3-0.5%) in the same three months in 2024.
- House sales fell 1.7% in July from June, declining for a third consecutive month (seasonally adjusted). Nevertheless, monthly sales have been higher than a year ago for more than two years (excluding a slip in June 2024).
- The stock of properties available for sale fell 0.4% from July, following a 0.6% decline between May and June, marking the first consecutive monthly declines in 2025. The number of properties available for sale remains elevated at around 32,500 (all figures seasonally adjusted).
- House prices in Auckland were higher than a year ago during each of the three months to June, but they were down 0.1% from a year ago in July. House prices in Otago had recorded positive annual growth for almost two years but fell 0.6% in July from a year ago. The regions that saw the largest annual rises in July were Taranaki (+5.0%), Southland (+2.8%), and Canterbury (+0.7%).
Housing market still lacking momentum
REINZ house Price index, monthly % changes (seasonally adjusted)
...and our reaction
- As sales remain subdued, a lack of momentum is seeing house prices devoid of any significant trend. Recently, narrow annual rises have been a function of falls during the same month a year ago, rather than month-on-month rises in 2025.
- The case for a pick-up in interest from investors remains poor, as national rents were down 1.4%pa in the three months to June (according to MBIE data).
- The labour market has continued to deteriorate, with the unemployment rate rising to 5.2% in the June quarter. The high unemployment rate of 6.1% in Auckland could keep a lid on house price increases nationally, considering Auckland’s relatively large share of nationwide level.
- Next week the Reserve Bank will release its Monetary Policy Statement, and we expect the official cash rate to be cut by 25 basis points to 3.0%. Since the Bank’s last forecasts in May, economic data has remained relatively soft, supporting another cut following an on-hold call in July amid global uncertainty.
- Financial markets currently have two further OCR cuts priced in, but any signals of further easing from the Reserve Bank could lead to more downward pressure on fixed mortgage rates. However, potential home buyers might still be waiting for better conditions in the labour market before making a move into the housing market.
Latest updates
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