Our take on the latest Real estate statistics (Thu 14 May 2026)
House sales
House prices
Stock of homes for sale
7.9%pa0.5%
1.2%In Apr 2026
From Mar 2026 (sa)
Since Feb 2026 (sa)
The key numbers...
- There were emerging signs of weakness in the housing market in April, with house sales volumes down 7.9% from April 2025. This annual decline was the largest in three years, excluding the June 2024 result, which was affected by the timing of Matariki.
- West Coast, Southland, Taranaki, and Otago were the only regions to record higher sales last month compared with April 2025. Monthly sales results can be quite variable, particularly in smaller regions, but sales growth over the last three months has generally been strongest in parts of the South Island, with West Coast (11%pa), Otago (4.7%pa), and Southland (3.5%pa) leading the way.
- House prices eased 0.5% between March and April (seasonally adjusted). Although we’re loathe to read too much into one month’s data, this result was the largest monthly decline in two years, taking prices down 0.9% from a year ago.
- The stock of homes for sale was up 0.9% in April from March (seasonally adjusted). After edging down between October 2025 and February this year, stock numbers are now just 0.4% below last October’s 10-year high.
...and our reaction
- One month’s data is not enough to be certain of a weaker trend for the housing market. However, April’s result fits with our expectations about the likely effects of the Iran War and higher fuel prices on the market, with sharply lower consumer confidence and increased uncertainty about economic prospects undermining people’s willingness to make major financial decisions.
- Even prior to the Middle East conflict, sales growth had been slowing, and three-month annual growth has now turned negative for the first time in almost three years. April’s monthly sale result is consistent with annual sales of about 78,700, which represents a modest decline from the current annual total of 80,329.
- The widespread nature of the slowdown in sales suggests that no regions will be immune to the pressure on confidence and activity in the housing market. However, the spectre of rising interest rates later this year is likely to be felt most acutely in regions where house-price-to-income ratios are highest, such as Auckland and Wellington.
- Although we expect higher net migration to boost demand for housing, those positive effects could be swamped in the near-term by broader economic weakness. As a result, we see downside risks to our house price forecasts over the next 6-12 months.
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