Our take on the latest Real estate statistics (Tue 15 Jul 2025)
House prices down 0.3% from May (sa)
House sales down 6.0% from May (sa)
Stock of properties for sale down 0.5% from May (sa)
The key numbers...
- House prices fell 0.3% in June from May (seasonally adjusted), but were higher than a year ago (+0.3%pa) for the second consecutive month. The annual rise reflects significant month-on-month falls in most months from March to August last year.
- House sales fell 6.0% in June from May (based on Infometrics seasonal adjustment), falling for the second consecutive month for the first time since December 2024. Sales remain substantially higher than a year ago, up 20% from June 2024.
- The stock of properties available for sale fell 0.5% from May, but a directional trend is yet to appear, with month-to-month changes yet to record two consecutive months in the same direction since December 2024. New listings fell 4.6% in June from May but remain elevated (all figures seasonally adjusted).
- House prices in Wellington (-2.6%pa) saw their smallest annual decline since October, but annual declines have now occurred for 12 consecutive months. Growth in Auckland prices remains low (+0.2%pa), after recording two consecutive month-on-month declines. Annual growth at the national level (+0.3%pa) was led by Canterbury (+2.2%pa), Nelson (+2.1%pa), and Taranaki (+2.0%pa).
House sales trend still subdued
Monthly house sales, seasonally adjusted
...and our reaction
- House sales remain subdued and unable to make a dent in the surplus stock of properties available for sale. There is still around six months’ worth of normal sales volumes on the market, with the stock floating around 32,500 for the past year (seasonally adjusted).
- Recently, there has been significant downward pressure on rents, with rents down 1.6%pa in May (according to MBIE data). The landscape for investors is difficult given current rental yields, and demand for rentals in the market.
- The labour market is yet to turn, with the underlying trend in job ads still sideways. Potential buyers will be wanting to feel more security within their current roles to give them confidence that they will be able to meet their mortgage obligations for the foreseeable future.
- At the beginning of this month the Reserve Bank kept the official cash rate unchanged at 3.25%. The Bank expects to lower the official cash rate further, subject to inflation pressures continuing to ease in line with the Committee’s central projections. Further cuts will likely be limited to a total of 25-50 basis points, so a material increase in housing demand will need the support of a recovery in the labour market.
Latest updates
Premium
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10%pa House sales in July 20260.4%pa House prices from a year earlier
9.3%pa Stock of homes for sale in July 2026Premium
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13%pa House sales in May 20260.6%pa House prices from May 2025
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7.9%pa House sales in Apr 20260.5% House prices from Mar 2026 (sa)
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