Our take on the latest Real estate statistics (Mon 17 Mar 2025)
House sales up 2.6% from January (sa)
House prices up 0.3% from January (sa)
Stock of properties for sale down 0.3% from January (sa)
The key numbers...
- House sales in February rose 2.6% from January (based on Infometrics seasonal adjustment), and were 3.4% higher than in February 2024. Auckland was a key contributor to this rise, with a 12% monthly increase, while the rest of New Zealand only saw a 1.9% rise in sales.
- House prices rose 0.3% in February from January (seasonally adjusted), although prices remain lower than a year ago, down 1.2%.
- Regional trends vary widely, with weaker North Island house prices and stronger South Island prices. Only one region in the South Island had lower house prices than a year ago – Otago, down 0.1%pa. In the North Island, Gisborne was the only region with higher house prices than a year ago, up 4.2%.
- Higher house sales have so far failed to make a material dent in the surplus stock of properties available for sale, with available property stock falling just 0.3% in February (seasonally adjusted). New listings numbers fell 7.8% from January but remain at elevated levels. The seasonally adjusted trend for available property stock sat at around 32,700 properties in February, with stocks fluctuating between 32,500-33,500 since July 2024.
Stock for sale remains elevated
New Zealand based listings on realestate.co.nz, seasonally adjusted
...and our reaction
- Housing market momentum continues to improve, slowly, with house sales rising further and house prices also showing further but still slight gains.
- It seems that there’s no immediate shift in pace to buy, with the median length of time to sell a house ticking slightly higher in February, up one day from January to 47 days. The time taken to sell has fluctuated between 46 and 47 days for the past five months, reflecting wider trends seen across stocks (all figures seasonally adjusted).
- With house prices slowly rising, there’s a question about when and at what speed potential investors and owner-occupiers re-enter the market hoping to snap up a property near the bottom of the cycle at lower borrowing rates. Last month the Reserve Bank delivered what might be the final bumper 50 basis point interest rate cut in this easing cycle, and interest rates appear not to have as much room to fall further.
- We have heard reports from major banks of increased inquiries from potential borrowers, but it may take some time for sales to materialise amid still-rising unemployment. We expect to see sale volumes tick up by the second half of this year, leading to a reduction in the stock for sale from the 32,500-33,500 levels seen over the past eight months, and creating some modest upward pressure on house prices.
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