Ready-mixed concrete

Weakness in concrete volumes continues

12 Feb 2025

Matthew Allman

Our take on the latest Ready-mixed concrete (Wed 12 Feb 2025)

Concrete volumes down 4.7% from September 2024 (sa)

Annual concrete volumes down by 6.2%pa

Weakest quarterly result since Jun 2014 (excl. lockdowns, sa)

The key numbers...

Quarterly ready-mixed concrete volumes fell 4.7% between September and December 2024 to 928,000 cubic metres, more than reversing out the rises in the previous two quarters. Volumes have now been below 1.0m cubic metres for five consecutive quarters, whereas previously they hadn’t been below this level for more than one quarter at a time since September 2015 (all figures seasonally adjusted).
Annual ready-mixed concrete volumes fell to 3.81m cubic metres in December 2024, down 6.2% from the December 2023 year to their lowest level in a decade.
Results at the regional level were mostly lower than the September 2024 quarter, led by Canterbury (down 17%), followed by Northland (down 8.4%) and Waikato, Bay of Plenty (down 3.6%). Only two of the eight broad regions rose, led by West Coast, Tasman, Nelson, Marlborough (up 1.3%) and Auckland (up 0.1%).
The Christchurch Metropolitan area had previously been showing considerable relative strength, rising throughout the first three quarters of 2024. However, concrete volumes fell 19% in the December quarter to reverse the earlier gains. The Wellington Metropolitan area continued to show weakness, with volumes falling 6.5% in December. Volumes in the Auckland Metropolitan area rose 1.3%, increasing for the second consecutive quarter following a revision to the September quarter (all figures seasonally adjusted).

Lowest annual concrete volumes in a decade

000m3, annual running totals, ready-mixed concrete volumes

...and our reaction

After two consecutive quarterly increases in volumes over the six months to September 2024 (seasonally adjusted), the December quarter saw volumes resume their decline, dropping to their lowest level since June 2014 (excluding the lockdown-affected June 2020 quarter). The average quarterly volume over 2024 (955,000 cubic metres) was 10% below the average in 2019 (1.06m cubic metres), when demand conditions were more normal prior to the pandemic.
Residential consents have stabilised throughout the second half of 2024, although there is still some volatility in attached dwelling consents. Soft economic conditions and slow population growth mean that any recovery in consent numbers for 2025 is likely to be limited, and residential work put in place is likely to continue tracking lower, weighing on concrete usage.
Non-residential building consents temporarily showed a bit of strength in October and November before recording a much weaker month in December. However, the pipeline of non-residential work is showing signs of contracting, and we expect and weak economic conditions and restricted business investment to drag down demand for concrete in 2025. Tight fiscal conditions will also limit the scope for additional public sector projects not yet signalled from entering the pipeline.
There is some upside risk to our view of a limited recovery in residential consent numbers, as the government focuses on growing housing supply. The government’s appetite to boost investment in infrastructure could also help put a floor under concrete volumes over the next 18 months. However, overall we expect weak investment intentions and tight fiscal conditions to dominate, meaning the pipeline of construction activity and concrete demand is likely to continue to narrow.

Latest updates

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Ready-mixed concrete

Weakness in concrete volumes continues

The key numbers...

Lowest annual concrete volumes in a decade

...and our reaction

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