Our take on the latest National population estimates (Tue 18 Feb 2025)
Total NZ population estimate
5,356,700
As of December 2024
Population growth slows to 0.9%pa in December 2024 quarter
Net migration eases to 27,100 for year ending December 2024
The key numbers...
- The resident population of New Zealand rose 0.9%pa in the December 2024 quarter to an estimated total of 5,356,700. This includes a revision by Stats NZ, who now estimate the September 2024 quarter population to be 3,300 lower than previously stated.
- Quickly receding net migration continues to cause a population slow-down. Annual net migration fell from 41,000 in the year to September 2024 to 27,100 in the year to December 2024, a long way off the 128,300 recorded in year to December 2023. The last time that New Zealand experienced net migration below 30,000, excluding while borders were closed for the pandemic, was in 2014.
- Natural increase (the difference between births and deaths) rose by a modest 2,000 in the year to December 2024, driven by a 2.4% rise in births and 0.4% fall in deaths, although this does come after weakness in the past three years. Total natural increase was 21,400 in the year to December 2024.
- Younger age groups are most affected by slowing net migration, with a 0.1%pa fall in the under-15-year-old population, compared to a steady 3.1%pa rise in the 65-years-and-older population. The working age 15-64-year-old population grew by a mere 0.6%pa, dragged down by a 0.3%pa decline in 15-34-year-olds. Our fastest population growth continues in the oldest age groups, with 4.9%pa growth in 75-79-year-olds and 5.3%pa growth in 85-89-year-olds.
- Dwelling growth continues to slow, slipping from 1.8%pa in the September 2024 quarter to 1.7%pa in the December 2024 quarter, well short of 2.4%pa growth in the December 2023 quarter.
Population declines for under-35-year-olds
Annual % change, NZ population
...and our reaction
- Following record high net migration in 2023, New Zealand’s net migration has quickly receded, leaving only modest population growth in the year to December 2024. Excluding the pandemic period when borders were closed, net migration of 27,100 is New Zealand’s lowest since 2014 and population growth of 0.9% is the lowest since 2013.
- We expect further softening of net migration, as our weak labour market and rising unemployment rate provides little impetus to draw in migrants, nor discourage young New Zealanders from heading overseas.
- Although it is encouraging to see a little improvement in natural increase – with higher births and lower deaths – this doesn’t signify any fundamental improvement in our ageing population. The growing disparity in population growth between the young and old does signal uncomfortable demographic – and fiscal – challenges ahead. Declines in the 0-14-year-old and 15-34-year-olds population mean weaker supply of workers, taxpayers, and potentially parents. A strong and growing working-age population is important over the medium to long term to support the needs of our fast growing 75-years-and-older population, who are approaching a high-need stage of life.
Latest updates
Premium
National population estimates
Slight pick-up in population growth
Tue 18 Aug 2026
Quarterly
5,357,300 Total NZ population estimate as at June 2026
0.7%pa Population growth in June 2026 quarter
17,600 Net migration gain over the year to June 2026Premium
National population estimates
Population growth lifted by increasing migration
Mon 18 May 2026
Quarterly
5,361,300 Total NZ population estimate as at March 20260.8%pa Population growth in March 2026 quarter24,200 Net migration over the year to March 2026National population estimates
Population growth steady at 0.6%pa
Tue 17 Feb 2026
Quarterly
5,342,000 Total NZ population estimate as at December 2025
0.6%pa Population growth in December 2025 quarter14,200 Net migration over the year to December 2025National population estimates
Population growth steady at 0.6%pa
Mon 17 Nov 2025
Quarterly
5,334,200 Total NZ population estimate as of September 2025
Population grows 0.6%pa in September 2025 quarterNet migration edges up to 12,500 for year ending September 2025